First Round Update



Twenty of the 32 first-rounders remain unsigned today, 13 days before the Aug. 17 deadline. At the same point last year, all but 11 of the 2008 first-rounders had agreed to terms.

No first-rounder has signed since Louisiana State outfielder Jared Mitchell, the No. 23 overall pick, accepted $1.2 million from the White Sox on July 8. Only one of the 12 first-rounders who has turned pro has exceeded the bonus recommended by the commissioner’s office: California high school shortstop Jiovanni Mier, who received a $1,358,000 bonus from the Astros at No. 21.

The commissioner’s office won’t even acknowledge that Mier got an above-slot bonus. Like most draftees, he’ll collect all of his bonus by Jan. 1, but MLB is calculating that the slight deferral of the final payment decreases the net present value of his deal to $1,329,224—just under its recommendation of $1,332,000. MLB never has applied that reduction to a standard bonus payout in the past.

Below is the status of the unsigned first-round picks, almost all of whom are expected to sign in the end. The deals will exceed slot recommendations, so MLB will hold off on confirming them until shortly before the deadline, which has been pushed back two days to so it won’t fall on a weekend. In most cases where the player will get well-over-slot money, negotiations haven’t advanced past the preliminary stages.

• San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg, the No. 1 overall pick by the Nationals, and agent Scott Boras reportedly want a $50 million contract. While Strasburg would command that on the open market, he’ll have to settle for smashing Mark Prior’s draft-record $10.5 million deal from 2001. Strasburg and Washington will meet somewhere in the middle, though Boras may yet unveil some gambit designed to make his client a free agent.

• North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley (No. 2, Mariners) is the best hitter in the draft and a Boras client. That combination usually leads Boras to comparisons to Mark Teixeira, who signed the richest draft deal ever for a hitter with a $9.5 million contract in 2001. In recent years, the market for the top position player has been established around $6 million.

• Five high school players alarmed clubs with high price tags before the draft: Georgia outfielder Donavan Tate (No. 3, Padres), Missouri righthander Jacob Turner (No. 9, Tigers), California lefty Tyler Matzek (No. 11, Rockies), Texas lefty Matthew Purke (No. 14, Rangers) and Texas righty Shelby Miller (No. 19, Cardinals). Tate wanted $6 million; Turner and Purke sought "Rick Porcello money," the record $7 million contract for a high schooler that Porcello and Josh Beckett got; Matzek mentioned "precedent-setting money," presumably more than the Porcello/Beckett record; and Miller asked for $4 million. Teams will chisel away at those prices, with Matzek expected to be the toughest player to sign out of that group.

• Along with Matzek, Turner, Purke and Miller, Georgia high school righthander Zack Wheeler (No. 6, Giants) was considered one of the five elite high school pitchers in this draft. Unlike the others, he didn’t announce a huge price tag, but he’ll still get much more than MLB’s $2.6 million recommendation for his slot.

• Vanderbilt lefthander Mike Minor (No. 7, Braves), Arizona State righthander Mike Leake (No. 8, Reds), Kennesaw State righty Chad Jenkins (No. 20, Blue Jays) and Florida high school shortstop Nick Franklin (No. 27, Mariners) are angling for last year’s recommendations rather than this year’s reduced slots.

• Fort Worth Cats righthander Aaron Crow (No. 12, Royals), Southern California shortstop Grant Green (No. 13, Athletics) and North Carolina righty Alex White (No. 15, Indians) are seeking deals more in line with the top-five picks they once projected to be.

• Three other high schoolers put out asking prices before the draft that are higher than the 2008 recommendations for where they were drafted. Florida third baseman Bobby Borchering (No. 16, Diamondbacks) wanted $2.0 million, Oklahoma lefthander Chad James (No. 18, Marlins) asked for $1.75 million, and Texas outfielder Slade Heathcott (No. 29, Yankees) sought upwards of $2 million.

• Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson (No. 22, Twins) had a chance to be a top-five pick before coming down with a stress fracture in his forearm shortly before the draft. His negotiations hinge on how well he’ll be able to throw for the Twins before the deadline.

• Florida outfielder LeVon Washington (No. 30, Rays) got as little predraft hype as any first-rounder, but he’s advised by Boras so slot money ($1.08 million) probably won’t cut it.



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15 Comments

MLB has a very crazy system. Some of these players want ridiculous sums for guys who may never play in the majors, or may take 5+ years to do so. That being said, i think they do get ripped off when clubs are allowed to sign foreign players for much more, without a draft order of any kind. None of that is as bad as allowing one team to have a $200m payroll, which is more than some entire divisions pay out. They should alter the divisions based on the size of the market. I also think teams should be allowed to trade their draft picks so players aren’t slipping to big-market teams, undermining the struggling teams.

[...] Callis of Baseball America updated the statuses of the twenty unsigned first round picks, mentioning that Yanks’ top pick Slade Heathcott is seeking “upwards of $2 [...]

The idea of trading draft spots is a good one, but it should be limited to the first few rounds (3,5,) so that it costs high picks to gain, and the gain is less.

There should also be a draft for foreign players under the age of 18 (21, 16).

Any player above the age of 21 and is not coming out of a college or other schooling should be able to sign as a free agent.

Why hasn’t Jiovanni Mier played since July 27?

This draft thing goes on every year. There should
be a set amount for all the picks. (Think the NBA
does it) also like other sports the team should be
able to trade picks just think what the Nationals
can get. Most people don’t know you have to
keep your signed pick one year.

Is Dustin Ackley likely to be sent to High Desert this year (if he signs)?

Mier was hit on the hand about a week ago? X-Rays I believe were negative but, he does have a bruise. The Astros are just being cautious with him.

The only team that would pay $50M for Strasburg is the Yankees. I hope lightning strikes Scott Boras down and then the draft can go back to what it used to be. Boras killed the modern draft in 1996 with the Matt White, Bobby Seay, Travis Lee fiasco. Since then he has done everything in his power to manipulate the draft. SCOTT, WHY DON’T YOU LET YOUR CLIENTS TRY TO EARN THEIR MONEY? If a player is good enough, they will make their money eventually. Baseball needs an actual cap on draft picks, not a slotting recommendation. If a player is picked later than they would like, too bad, go to college. The way it is now, only the big market teams can afford to take the best players, which defeats the purpose of having the worst teams (by record) pick first. It would be great if NONE of these players sign, then realize how Boras is ******** them, thus setting off a chain of events that leads to no one signing Boras. I thought the Alvarez/Hosmer debacle last year would do it, but not quite. Or the ultimate irony, let Boras buy a team and then have to work on the other side of the fence. You think he would throw $50M at Strasburg, heckano.

[...] http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1352 [...]

Minor signing announced last night (Wednesday) at $2.4 mil. They should fall like dominos now, right?

Actually, $2.42 million. See http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1373. I still think it’s going to be another week before we have a lot of first-round signings. We may see guys like Mike Leake (No. 8, Reds), Chad Jenkins (No. 20, Blue Jays) and Nick Franklin (No. 27, Mariners)—who presumably are holding out for the 2008 slots—sign before then, but the majority of the 19 unsigned first-rounders will go down to the end.

For college players who sign just before the deadline like Ackley will, the club often lets them tune up in instructional league and go to the Arizona Fall League. That’s my guess for what the Mariners will do with him. Sending him to a minor league club for a couple of weeks wouldn’t mean much.

Joshua – I (and so many other baseball fans) agree with what to do with Borass, even though the realistic equivalent is probably find some way to decertify him. However, for everything evil he’s done to ruin competitive balance in baseball, he’s inadvertently done a couple of good things. In that ‘96 draft, he would up preventing the Twins, Expos, and others from giving inflated singing bonuses to four players who went on the mediocre (or in White’s case non-existent) major league careers. And in 2001 he priced the invincible Mark Prior out of the Twins’ range, forcing them to settle for an obscure, hometown catcher with the first overall pick.

As far as trading draft picks goes, I find this to be a very bad idea. The MLB draft is by far the most unpredictable of all major sports, and it takes the longest for players to reach the majors. So imagine in the future if evil big market teams start offering draft picks in trades. It’s bad enough stealing players away from small and normal market teams for A and AA level prospects who aren’t guaranteed to be regular in the majors. Then if big market teams trade away all their draft picks, then they’ll be even more inclined to throw big money at international and domestic free agents.

I realize people are talking about trading the drafted players who won’t sign, but there’s a problem with that. MLB teams don’t own the rights to the players they draft, like they do in other sports. And with players eligible for the draft only during certain years of their hs/college career, it would be hard to implement a “draft rights” system. The only option would be to trade the actual draft slots.

One final thing that’s been brought is pre-determined contracts, like in the NBA. This sounds good in theory, but has problems. First of all, the MLBPA is probably the strongest union in the history of organized labor, so it would be extremely hard to negotiate this. Also, there should be a little flexibility in the signing progress. Teams should be able to offer a little more money to a lower round high school pick or college junior to try to get him to sign (within reason, not giving 2nd round money to a 30th round pick). An idea that’s been brought up before is a draft “cap”, where you have X dollars to sign as many draft picks as you can. However, that cap should be variable based on the team and their draft situation (teams with higher picks, extra compensation picks, and a lower major league payroll should get a higher signing limit, determined by some advanced mathematical equation that determines a fair amount for all teams).

After dealing alot of their better prospects the Cards have to sign Miller right? Mateo was a nice snag but he is 16 (or we hope he is!) so he is at least 3-4 years away. We need that top of the rotation type of starter in our system as well…we have none right now..that has been a glaring need for some time now.

[...] 15th overall by the Tribe, Baseball America is now reporting that White is looking for a larger pay day than “slotting” would suggest as he was once projected to be a top five pick.  Similar [...]


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