Baseball begins the day of the signing deadline with 23 of the 33 first-round picks still negotiating rather than playing. Eleven of 27 supplemental first-rounders also haven't come to terms, and 98 of the 331 selections in the first 10 rounds have yet to turn pro.
Much of that is by design. As it has since 2000, MLB has recommended specific bonuses for each pick in the first five rounds and a maximum for all subsequent choices (those guidelines are available for BA subscribers here
). This year, the commissioner's office has asked clubs to refrain from offering more than those recommendations to players—especially first-rounders and college juniors—for as long as possible. Advisers have confirmed that some first-rounders had yet to be offered more than slot money before deadine day.
Additionally, MLB is trying to clamp down on the amount of bonus information unveiled before tonight's midnight ET deadline. The idea is to prevent players from using other above-slot bonuses as leverage. Two advisers told Baseball America on Sunday that teams threatened to scrap as-yet-announced deals if terms leaked out before the deadline.
Nevertheless, compared to the international amateur and major league free-agent markets, the draft remains the biggest bargain in talent acquistion. The bottom line is that teams want to sign their draftees and will pay for talent.
And they will pay dearly today. Six of the top seven choices remain unsigned—Gerrit Cole (No. 1, Pirates), Danny Hultzen (No. 2, Mariners), Dylan Bundy (No. 4, Orioles), Bubba Starling (No. 5, Royals), Anthony Rendon (No. 6, Nationals), Archie Bradley (No. 7, Diamondbacks)—and could command big league contracts and two-sport deals totaling $45 million or more. It may require at least $2.5 million each to sign four high schoolers taken near the end of the first round: Tyler Beede (No. 21, Blue Jays), Joe Ross (No. 25, Padres), Blake Swihart (No. 26, Red Sox) and Robert Stephenson (No. 27, Reds).
It's possible that all 33 first-rounders will have signed by the end of the day for something in the neighborhood of $95 million in bonuses and guaranteed salaries included in major league contracts.
Last year, teams combined to spend $91.1 million on bonuses on the final day of the signing period, and a total of $195.8 million on bonuses overall. Both of those figures are records that figure to be obliterated in 2011.
Also in jeopardy is the single-team bonus mark of $11,927,200 set by the 2010 Nationals. The Blue Jays already have spent more than $5 million and have yet to sign Beede and six other picks in the first 10 rounds.
The most prominent prospects not expected to turn pro are Pirates second-rounder Josh Bell and Nationals third-rounder Matt Purke. An outfielder from Dallas Jesuit HS, Bell was the best all-around prep hitter in the draft, but his mother is a college professor and wants him to attend the University of Texas. Industry insiders question whether he'd sign for even an eight-figure bonus.
The Rangers drafted Purke 14th overall out of high school in 2009 and agreed to a $6 million bonus, but MLB controlled the team's finances and killed the deal. Purke instead attended Texas Christian, and he entered 2011 as Baseball America's third-rated draft prospect behind Rendon and Cole. After going 16-0 as a freshman, he had shoulder, back and blister problems as a draft-eligible sophomore this spring. Rather than settle for less than Texas offered him, he's more likely to take his chances on going at or near the top of the 2012 draft.
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it's a bit ridiculous that teams wait two + months to consumate these transactions. just go ahead and get the kids in the system. you think highly enough of a player to burn a 1st round pick on him but you'd rather waste an entire short season of exposure and experience playing "chicken" with his advisor?????
Posted by Adin | August 15, 2011 at 6:15 am | ShortcutJim, there were some rumors a couple of weeks ago that the jays and matt dean had agreed to terms, but then everything went quiet… have you heard anything at all on that front?
Posted by Nate | August 15, 2011 at 6:44 am | ShortcutHave not confirmed anything. Wouldn’t surprise me, though. Jays will spend.
Posted by Jim Callis | August 15, 2011 at 7:21 am | ShortcutJim, will the Angels sign Dominic Jose?
Posted by Jesse | August 15, 2011 at 8:17 am | ShortcutThis entire process is ridiculous. Half of the time there is no negotiations whatsoever until today. For instance, Brandon Nimmo's father has said the Mets and Nimmo's reps have hardly spoken. Why? Move up the deadline and get these kids signed or in school.
Posted by Matt | August 15, 2011 at 9:07 am | ShortcutJim
Posted by rob | August 15, 2011 at 9:17 am | ShortcutWhat are the chances that the Jays sign Beede, Norris, Comer and Dean.
Jim: 2:41 am? Get some sleep, will you? :-)
Posted by john | August 15, 2011 at 10:05 am | Shortcut[...] the meantime, you can read what Jim Callis expects will happen tonight, listen to two podcasts from Callis and John Manuel, where they break down what they're hearing [...]
Posted by Baseball America | Blog | Baseball America Draft Blog | Baseball America Has The Signing Deadline Covered | August 15, 2011 at 11:16 am | ShortcutWhat are the odds the Pirates get Bell signed?
Posted by Tim | August 15, 2011 at 11:17 am | ShortcutDean done. Guessing they’ll get at least two of those three arms.
Posted by Jim Callis | August 15, 2011 at 11:23 am | ShortcutClose to zero. But you never know, and the Pirates are willing to spend.
Posted by Jim Callis | August 15, 2011 at 11:23 am | Shortcutlook at kolten wong he signed and playing great already
Posted by don | August 15, 2011 at 12:17 pm | ShortcutJim
Posted by rob | August 15, 2011 at 12:26 pm | ShortcutJust to follow up on the Jays, if they get these guys signed ( Beeds, Norris, Comer) to go all along with the other young talent. Do they have the best farm system?
Thanks
he has almost two hundred PA 13 doubles , 327 average and 386 on base percentage. he is almost putting himself one year ahead of the game by signing early
Posted by don | August 15, 2011 at 12:28 pm | ShortcutJust saw a post there is a problem with Grayson GArvin's signing-can you elaborate?
Posted by Dan Ryan | August 15, 2011 at 12:56 pm | ShortcutAlso, why nothing final on Jason Esposito?
Jim, why did Bell get Boras as his rep if he is certain to go to Texas?
Posted by Mark | August 15, 2011 at 1:17 pm | ShortcutWill be in the running, that’s for sure.
Posted by Jim Callis | August 15, 2011 at 1:26 pm | ShortcutCan’t elaborate on Garvin yet. I expect Esposito signs with Orioles by the end of the day.
Posted by Jim Callis | August 15, 2011 at 1:26 pm | Shortcut