How out of touch are MLB's slot recommendations with what draftees actually receive? We stacked up the top 50 bonuses paid in the 2010 draft against the top 50 slots, and the difference was striking. There were eight slots worth $2 million or more, compared to 17 bonuses of $2 million or higher. All told, the top 50 bonuses totaled $96 million—37 percent higher than the $70 million total of the top 50 slots.
As one agent says, "I tell our players that the only thing the slot number means is the amount you can sign for right after the draft. The longer you're willing to wait, the more money you can get."
| Rank | Player, Pos, Team (Round) | Bonus | Slot |
| 1 | Jameson Taillon, rhp, Pit (1st round) | $6,500,000 | $4,000,000 |
| 2 | Bryce Harper, of, Was (1st round) | $6,250,000 | $3,250,000 |
| 3 | Manny Machado, ss, Bal (1st round) | $5,250,000 | $3,000,000 |
| 4 | Zach Lee, rhp, LAD (1st round) | $5,250,000 | $2,750,000 |
| 5 | Nick Castellanos, 3b, Det (supp. 1st round) | $3,450,000 | $2,520,000 |
| 6 | Christian Colon, ss, KC (1st round) | $2,750,000 | $2,340,000 |
| 7 | Drew Pomeranz, lhp, Cle (1st round) | $2,650,000 | $2,178,000 |
| 8 | Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, Bos (supp. 1st round) | $2,550,000 | $2,043,000 |
| 9 | Matt Harvey, rhp, NYM (1st round) | $2,525,000 | $1,962,000 |
| 10 | Kaleb Cowart, 3b/rhp, LAA (1st round) | $2,300,000 | $1,863,000 |
| 11 | Stetson Allie, rhp, Pit (2nd round) | $2,250,000 | $1,791,000 |
| 12 | Delino DeShields, 2b, Hou (1st round) | $2,150,000 | $1,719,000 |
| 13 | A.J. Cole, rhp, Was (4th round) | $2,000,000 | $1,656,000 |
| 14 | Michael Choice, of, Oak (1st round) | $2,000,000 | $1,602,000 |
| 15 | Deck McGuire, rhp, Tor (1st round) | $2,000,000 | $1,557,000 |
| 16 | Yasmani Grandal, c, Cin (1st round) | $2,000,000 | $1,512,000 |
| 17 | Zach Cox, 3b, StL (1st round) | $2,000,000 | $1,467,000 |
| 18 | Christian Yelich, of, Fla (1st round) | $1,700,000 | $1,422,000 |
| 19 | Chris Sale, lhp, CWS (1st round) | $1,656,000 | $1,386,000 |
| 20 | Josh Sale, of, TB (1st round) | $1,620,000 | $1,359,000 |
| 21 | Jake Skole, of, Tex (1st round) | $1,557,000 | $1,332,000 |
| 22 | Luke Jackson, rhp, Tex (supp. 1st round) | $1,545,000 | $1,287,000 |
| 23 | Dickie Thon, ss, Tor (5th round) | $1,500,000 | $1,260,000 |
| 24 | Mason Williams, of, NYY (4th round) | $1,450,000 | $1,242,000 |
| 25 | Gary Brown, of, SF (1st round) | $1,450,000 | $1,215,000 |
| 26 | Kyle Parker, of, Col (1st round) | $1,400,000 | $1,197,000 |
| 27 | John Barbato, rhp, SD (6th round) | $1,400,000 | $1,161,000 |
| 28 | Kolbrin Vitek, 2b/of, Bos (1st round) | $1,359,000 | $1,134,000 |
| 29 | Tony Wolters, ss, Cle (3rd round) | $1,350,000 | $1,116,000 |
| 30 | Alex Wimmers, rhp, Min (1st round) | $1,332,000 | $1,089,000 |
| 31 | Garin Cecchini, ss, Bos (4th round) | $1,310,000 | $972,000 |
| 32 | Mike Foltynewicz, rhp, Hou (1st round) | $1,305,000 | $954,000 |
| 33 | Tyrell Jenkins, rhp, StL (supp. 1st round) | $1,300,000 | $936,000 |
| 34 | Sean Coyle, ss, Bos (3rd round) | $1,300,000 | $918,000 |
| 35 | Brett Eibner, of/rhp, KC (2nd round) | $1,250,000 | $900,000 |
| 36 | Yordy Cabrera, of, Oak (2nd round) | $1,250,000 | $889,200 |
| 37 | Ty Linton, of, Ari (14th round) | $1,250,000 | $873,000 |
| 38 | LeVon Washington, of, Cle (2nd round) | $1,200,000 | $858,600 |
| 39 | Jesse Biddle, lhp, Phi (1st round) | $1,160,000 | $844,200 |
| 40 | Chance Ruffin, rhp, Det (supp. 1st round) | $1,150,000 | $829,800 |
| 41 | Cam Bedrosian, rhp, LAA (1st round) | $1,116,000 | $815,400 |
| 42 | Drew Smyly, lhp, Det (2nd round) | $1,100,000 | $802,800 |
| 43 | Chevez Clarke, of, LAA (1st round) | $1,089,000 | $789,300 |
| 44 | Hayden Simpson, rhp, ChC (1st round) | $1,060,000 | $776,700 |
| 45 | Justin O'Conner, c, TB (1st round) | $1,025,000 | $764,100 |
| 46 | Kellin Deglan, c, Tex (1st round) | $1,000,000 | $751,500 |
| 47 | Sammy Solis, lhp, Was (2nd round) | $1,000,000 | $739,800 |
| 48 | Alex Lavisky, c, Cle (8th round) | $1,000,000 | $728,100 |
| 49 | Peter Tago, rhp, Col (supp. 1st round) | $982,500 | $717,300 |
| 50 | Drew Cisco, rhp, Cin (6th round) | $975,000 | $705,600 |
| Total | $96,016,500 | $69,975,400 | |
| Average | $1,920,330 | $1,399,508 |
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If you remove the top five bonuses and plot the remaining bonuses vs. slot recommendations, the results are surprisingly consistent: bonus = 1.25 * recommendation, with an r^2 > 0.96. I wonder if previous drafts adhered to a similar relationship – scrap that top few crazy, skewing bonuses, and the remaining bunch has a strong linear relationship to the slot recommendations.
Posted by JDA | August 30, 2010 at 1:57 pm | ShortcutThe Allie slot is curious to me. Why such a high slot recommendation for a 2nd rounder. Same question with Cole.
Posted by Woz | August 30, 2010 at 3:53 pm | Shortcutwhy is #2 pick Jameson Taillon's slot bonus $750K more than #1 pick Bryce Harper's?
Posted by Corey | August 30, 2010 at 11:46 pm | ShortcutJust wondering. But why was Taillon's slot more than Harper's?
Posted by Gabe | August 31, 2010 at 1:02 am | ShortcutIt appears as if people don't get it. He is not comparing individual player bonuses to their respective slots. He is comparing the top 50 actual bonuses received to the top 50 slot recommendations.
Posted by easton714 | August 31, 2010 at 8:01 am | ShortcutThanks, Kevin.
Posted by John Manuel | August 31, 2010 at 8:06 am | ShortcutNow I get it.
Posted by Woz | August 31, 2010 at 8:36 am | ShortcutAs to thet question about Tallion and Harper. Harper has a ML contract, so he gets more $ as a wage over the contract. Tallion signed the normal rookie contract, to make up for the disparity in wage, he was given more upfront.
That agent needs to tell his players that Chris Sale is making a lot more money currently and for the future by signing for that slot and getting out and playing! BA needs to look at the other side of the coin too!
Posted by Anderson | August 31, 2010 at 10:29 am | ShortcutIf you take the economic view of this, just because teams are paying over slot does not mean that the prospects are worth that. It could be an imbalance in the economic system. Markets are not always efficient, they are simply efficient over time
Posted by obsessivegiantscompulsive | August 31, 2010 at 1:53 pm | ShortcutIn any case, this is not a true market anyway, in the economic sense. The draft is an artificially imbalanced market to favor the worse performing teams. And with only one draft per year, it could take a long time for equilibrium, if such can exist in such a market, to be reached.
The players have long had leverage that most agents do not take advantage of, to squeeze more money out of baseball. Boras was just the first to realize that and to capitalize on that inefficiency in this market. Others have followed, and basically follow the quote above as their mantra.
However, I would argue that is a falsehood for all but the very top picks in the first round. I recall one Giants pick (Wendell Fairley) who waited until the last day to sign, and he barely got maybe $25-50K more than slot (I think he wanted $1M as an even significant amount), but his pro career might be going better now had he signed early for slot and gotten more playing time his first season.
This artificial draft was created to avoid the top teams from simply buying all the best prospects (read, Yankees). Of course, some could argue that the top teams are doing it now, but the odds of prospects becoming a good player in the majors is so low the teams would have to buy a lot to guarantee any immediate return, and in any case the draft still does a good job of limiting that and in keeping the best prospects out of their hands, at least until free agency.
And people misjudge what a bonus really represent in the costs of finding and developing a good player in the majors. It is not $2M or $4M or $6M for a player, there is a probability for each player that he might become a good player, not all do just because they are paid $2M.
My calculations of the chances of finding a good player in the draft places the true acquisition costs of a good player at somewhere in the $10-15M range (meaning that you pay bonuses of around $10-15M to find each good player, on average). When the average team spends around $5M per year, that works out to finding a good player, on average, every 2-3 years.
And losing teams have a huge advantage, the odds of finding a good player is double and even quadruple that of a pick in the last third of the draft, which is where all the team contending for the playoffs tend to end up in the first round. Roughly 10% chance for that back of 1st round pick, roughly 20% for picks 6-10, roughly 40% for the 1-5 overall. But that is why the bonuses are that much higher there.
That's probably why the bonuses tend to spike early in the draft, because slotting is a linear function while the odds of finding a good player is exponential. Things are roughly linear past the first round because the odds are so low anyhow.
didn't know there was slot $$ designated for each player selected starting with #1. so what round you R selected in doesn't really mater. the whole draft "thing needs to be changed.
Posted by joe keathley | August 31, 2010 at 2:57 pm | ShortcutChris Sale is a unique situation. Only one like that in this year's draft.
Posted by TC | September 1, 2010 at 9:42 am | Shortcut