Jim, I know it’s early and you are not probably thinking about this, but who are your early preditions for number 1 next year IF Strasburg doesn’t sign? Could he sign off the Nats and play for the hometown Padres?

I hope that he fires Boras and signs the deal…..Boras is making a mockery of the draft system right now.

Re 2010: If Strasburg doesn’t sign, he’s not going to consent to allow the Nationals to draft him again. If the Nats had the No. 1 overall pick, Bryce Harper would be the favorite right now. Any other club that had the No. 1 overall pick, I’d say Strasburg would be their guy.

Matsuzaka is terrible, saying he is better than Matsuzaka really isn’t saying much. The argument saying that if Strasburg was a free agent he would get $50 million plus is true, but is not valid because the bottom line is the kid is a draft pick who doesn’t have free agent leverage.

You could say that about every draft pick in the past. Would Matt Weiters have only got $6 million if he was a free agent in 2007? He probably would have got a lot more but that argument wasn’t made for him at the time and he had no choice but to take the offer at the last second because the Orioles stood strong.

People saying Strasburg is “special” is ridiculous. Mark Prior was “special” too. There is no reason for Nationals fans to get nervous. Whatever he is offered he will take…. he is just playing the negotiating game. I’d say somewhere around $15-$20 million.

Who knows maybe he gets more, but if he does then you can mark it down as the Nationals got played pretty bad in the negotiations.

Matt
You are completely wrong. Strasburg and Boras aren’t just going to lay down and take whatever is given to them. Have you followed Scott Boras and the draft over the last however many years?

Gerrit Cole last year turned down the 1st round. Alex Meyer turned down 2+ million dollars in the 20th round. The year before that, Matt Harvey turns down the Angels in close to 2 million dollars.

Stephen Strasburg is the greatest prep pitcher of ALL TIME. Scott Boras is trying to do his job by getting this kid the amount of money that he deserves and that is well more than anyone else so far has deserved.

You can’t come out and say that he will take anything because the past shows that that will not be the case. It’s like what was stated earlier on BA, if Strasburg doesn’t get what he likes, theres a possible 3 options: (1) Return to SDSU (Josh Fields); (2) Go to Independent Ball (Luke Hochevar?); (3) Play Overseas (—Strasburg??—)
The two to previously had done the other two, Boras Clients, therefore, there is a chance he doesn’t sign.

This should be interesting to see what happens. Good luck to both sides. I hope to see a deal get done.

Matsuzaka is terrible, because hes hurt? Did you not see 2007 or 2008 from him? Come on

Jim, while it is likely that Strasburg would get $75M if he were a *singular free agent today*, based on Chapman/Matsuzaka, this is only because 90%+ of the free agent talent available today is vastly underpriced by being locked up via the draft. That frees up a huge amount of money to be lavished on the little talent that remains, with $1-$5M going to ultra-high risk underage Dominicans and $50M going to more proven talent such as the aforementioned gentlemen.

In a universally free market, Strasburg would get well over $10.5M, but nothing like the $50M-$75M figures being thrown around. There just would not be that supply of money available.

Ahh, 1996, the year Scott Boras was actually successful in messing up the MLB draft. My Rays got the raw end of the deal that year in signing Matt White to $10M. But its not like our 1st Round Pick that year did anything either. Never even made it to the big leagues. Its like every season he tries to recoup some of that magic and find some loophole somewhere to get his clients more money. Good for Boras clients, bad for just about everyone else. If I had to guess, I’d say Strasburg takes $20-$25M at about 11:59:55 on Monday night.

Midnight deadlines always confuse me because people often put midnight into the previous day. Today is Sunday. 12:00 AM tonight is the start of Monday. So the deadline is midnight tonight?

No Steve, i thought the same thing, but its tomorrow, use the countdown clock on the BA homepage

Re Dan M: You are correct explaining the deadline on Steve. On Chapman, I’d set the over-under at $50 million and bet the over. Not saying it makes sense, but teams go crazy for Cuban defectors and lightning-armed lefties, and he’s both.

Is there any chance Chad Kettler and Scooter
Gennett will sign???

Re Kettler and Gennett: Don’t think so.

Jim,

I see the Twins and Gibson are $1 million apart. Is a healthy Gibson really top 5 talent? Are the Twins offering Slot to Gibson? and what gives with thier atrocious signing numbers after the top 10 rounds?

Thanks,

I’m old school. Guaranteed contracts for guaranteed performance. Let all the draft picks get guarantees for what they do not what they say they’ll do.

An example: proposed contract for 1st round draft picks: 3 yr contract followed by eligibility for free agency, 100K signing bonus, minor league contract, guaranteed bonus’ for reaching the major leagues, guarantees for performane in the major leagues such as games started, games finished, large bonus for era below 2.00, somewhat less for 3.00 etc, guarantees for fans in the seats above the average etc.
It is mindless to pay anyone a bonus based on what he did in high school and college. Base a players compensation on performance at the major league level. BTW, if I’m a 3rd baseman with 5 years ML experience and making 2 million you can bet I’m not diving for the ball for a slug aking 10 million per year who’s never plaey an inning on ML paul. Lets pay veterans and not schoolboys.

Any update on Max Stassi?

Re Pena and Colvin: I don’t think those guys will get done. With Pena, sounds like the Nationals gave him one ultimatum too many earlier in the summer. I think Colvin would require a deal around seven figures and am not hearing that will happen.

Re Johnson: My default answer on the Rays is that they already have spent a little under $3 million to sign Glaesmann, Bailey, Malm and James, and they still have to sign first-rounder Washington. Not sure how much will be left in their budget after that. If they don’t get Washington done–and I think they will–they might spend some of his cash on later-round picks.

Jim, do you think the players that are below the 10th round that have not signed most likely will not sign? Or have they been a bit lost in the shuffle of signing the higher picks? I’m just noticing the A’s have a bunch of unsigned picks in the 20-30 rounds. Also do you have an average of how many draft picks usually sign on any given team? Just wondering if the A’s are above or below average in signing their picks.

What’s the word on Ackley & Tate. Are they likely to sign?

Re Ackley and Tate: I believe they’ll sign. They wouldn’t have gone that high if the clubs weren’t prepared to sign them. If I were setting the over/under on total of first-rounders who will sign, I’d still set it at 30½. Matzek will be the toughest sign, and Crow probably won’t sign until after the deadline.

Whats the status of Helm? Whats he looking for? Are the ‘backs making a run at him?

Re Helm: His scheduled BP session at Chase Field didn’t happen, with the team pulling the plug, not him. Not sure what his asking price is. He’s a quality hitter but was hurt for much of the spring.

Ohlman signs with the Orioles, details not released. Can you confirm? Jim Morris and Miami will certainly miss not having Murphy and Ohlman on campus.

Re Stewart: Heard the same, haven’t heard if they’re close.

watching the aflac game. harper showed off his cannon greately in the first. but showed some flaws hitting. what are your thoughts on him in the future jim?

Jim,
Assuming the Padres get something done with Tate and Sampson, would you be more inclined to spend to get Williams or Reyes at that point? Did anyone on the Cape do more to raise his stock than Jorge?

Re the Padres: I’d have to know my budget and their asking prices, but I like Williams a lot. Thought he was the best hitter among the really good athletic outfielders in the draft. Reyes was very good on the Cape but he’s also been inconsistent. If I’m running the Padres, I’d really be inclined to sign both.

Re the Astros: They already have signed 24 of their top 25 picks, and they may be done. They haven’t gone over slot for anyone yet as far as I can tell, and I’m not sure Drayton McLane is going to start tomorrow.

Re Givens: Yes and no. He was one of the more talented two-way guys in the draft and scouts were split about which way he should go. That said, I thought he was more athlete than baseball player, and that’s a risky profile. The Orioles will get the 55th pick in next year’s draft if they don’t sign him, so they don’t lose too much.

thanks for all the great info Jim!! You have been here all day answering answers… its like a mini chat room, Q & A session! Much much appreciated. Now I just hope those serious negotiations tomorrow between Matzek and Colorado end up in a deal being done!

[...] yesterday, Jim Callis of Baseball America wrote, “Matz’s deal isn’t close to done and isn’t going as smoothly as you might [...]

Re Turner: I think they will for somewhere between $5 million and Porcello money ($7 million).

Jim, Boras had talked about “blowing up the draft” – what exactly is he hoping to gain? If the Nats bonus to Strasburg is high enough to upset Bud Selig and the suits at MLB HQ, what’s going to happen? MLB ogoes into the next CBA and bargains for a hard slotting system, like the NBA. The players union probably consents because every dollar that the owners spend on picks is a dollar that doesn’t go to a union member.

So, what is Boras thinking about – every amateur is a free agent free to deal with any team? That will never happen, and he’s even more delusional than I thought if that’s his end game.

Hey, Jim! What % chance would you give the Rangers for coming to an agreement with Purke?

If MLB HQ truly holds back on approving some of these contracts (after say a 48 hour processing period), as part of a strategy to suppress bonuses, what’s in it for the teams to cooperate with this?

If I was an MLB GM, and Bud was sitting on the contract of one of my signed high picks, I’d tell the player to report to A-ball and force Bud’s hand in this.