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Four Hours & Counting . . .

Posted Jun. 9, 2009 1:08 pm by Jim Callis
Filed under: Draft Dope

The latest projection, four hours before the Nationals go on the clock:

1. Nationals: San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg.
2. Mariners: North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley.
3. Padres: Georgia HS outfielder Donavan Tate.
4. Pirates: Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez.

That’s all that’s fairly certain at this point. Strasburg is a lock at No. 1, Ackley and Tate should happen unless the money gets crazy, and the Pirates would take Sanchez over Georgia HS righthander Zack Wheeler in this scenario. The next five teams (Orioles, Giants, Braves, Reds, Tigers) are looking at pitchers but still sorting through options, so I’m not going to tear up this morning’s complete first-round projection just yet.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 9, 2009 at 1:08 pm by Jim Callis and is filed under Draft Dope. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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19 Comments

Any word on Baltimore at #5? We know it’s going to be a pitcher but grab one of the tougher signs (Turner, Matzek) or are they still a strong candidate to pop Wheeler, who they’ve been linked to for a while.

Posted by Derick | June 9, 2009 at 1:34 pm | Shortcut

Is there any chance that Matzek falls to the Braves at 7? Do the Braves take him there if Wheeler is off the board?

Posted by Jeff | June 9, 2009 at 1:35 pm | Shortcut

Is it just me, or does Sanchez seem like a pretty bad pick for the Pirates? Its like a worse version of the Astros taking Castro last year. Worse in the sense that the Pirates are taking him even earlier than the Astros took Castro. Worse in the sense that there are way more consensus players ahead of Sanchez at #4 in 2009 than there were last year ahead of Castro (Smoak was probably the only consensus guy ahead of Castro at that point). Seems like a terrible overdraft from a team that needs to have at least some concern over their image. Ponying up for Alvarez last year was a good faith move to correct their past drafting errors, but overdrafting Sanchez on the heels of the publicly unpopular McLouth trade (which I personally think was the right move) could be a public relations disaster.

And overdrafting a collegiate catcher at 4 will just let the local columnists and sports pundits run wild with the “making up for Weiters” headlines.

Posted by mymrbig | June 9, 2009 at 1:41 pm | Shortcut

And I don’t like Tate at #3 for the Padres. Seems like an overreaction or over-correction from some of their past drafts where they were perceived to draft too many safe picks with low ceilings but reasonably high floors. The answer should not be to adopt the Phillies strategy of drafting the biggest bag of tools in the shed and praying he develops. It should be about weighing a player’s upside against his risk. Even if they are too risk-averse to go with one of the HS pitchers, Crow seems like a much better pick here for the Pads.

Jim – how does Tate compare with past prep toolsy outfielders like Maybin, McCutchen, and Bruce? My sense is that Tate has similar upside, but maybe a few more questions than those guys did. And the Padres are thinking of Tate considerably earlier than those guys and paying him much more. Smells like an overdraft to me.

Posted by mymrbig | June 9, 2009 at 1:45 pm | Shortcut

Derick, that was in Jim’s mock draft 4.0 posted this morning.

Posted by John Manuel | June 9, 2009 at 2:01 pm | Shortcut

Jeff, it doesn’t seem that the Braves are prepared to set any precedents with their bonus/contract, as Matzek is asking for.

Posted by John Manuel | June 9, 2009 at 2:02 pm | Shortcut

I asked a scout this year to compare Tate to Maybin specifically; he thought Tate had more upside, similar bat. There were questions about how raw Maybin’s swing was out of high school as well.

Posted by John Manuel | June 9, 2009 at 2:02 pm | Shortcut

Is it just me, or did Callis’ latest mock 1st round omit Green? Did I miss something about him being inured, or is he just really busy?

Posted by Wally | June 9, 2009 at 2:03 pm | Shortcut

Does Matzek really compare favorably to Porcello and Beckett? If he does then some team will pony up the money.

Posted by John | June 9, 2009 at 2:10 pm | Shortcut

I just don’t see why Tate should be drafted #3 overall and given $6 million when Maybin, McCutchen, Bruce, and Snyder were drafted #11-14 overall in 2005 and paid $2.65 M, $1.9 M, $1.8 M, and $1.7 M respectively. Say what you will about inflating draft bonuses, but Justin Upton was #1 overall and given $6.1 M. To me, know way in the world Tate justifies being drafted #3 overall and given than kind of bonus. I wouldn’t have a problem with him getting drafted around #10 like the 2005 prep OF class, but I just think the Padres might be overreacting and making a pretty risky gamble this early in the draft.

Posted by mymrbig | June 9, 2009 at 2:15 pm | Shortcut

It’s not that I don’t think there’s a good chance he’ll go in the first round. It’s just that there are only a select few clubs who might do that, and I didn’t have him as the top choice for any of them.

Posted by Jim Callis | June 9, 2009 at 2:17 pm | Shortcut

Matz looks like a sure thing with the angels.

Dodgers are trying to cut a deal with a prep player and have asked him to price himself out of 1st round to get to them.

Colorado is debating between Joseph, Baron, Jackson and Stassi if they are there at 32 and 34

Posted by Jessie | June 9, 2009 at 2:19 pm | Shortcut

Jim -

Other things that I’ve been hearing had Green’s stock rising, so I figured that it might be an oversight. In any event, as a Royals fan, if Green is available and they take anyone else, I might have to mail the Glass family some rotten tomatoes.

Posted by Wally | June 9, 2009 at 2:37 pm | Shortcut

Please tell me that Roy Clark can hypnotize Frank Wren into giving him the cash to be able to take Matzek or Miller over White or Minor. Please….

Posted by Steve | June 9, 2009 at 2:40 pm | Shortcut

Actually not a bad pick for Pitt,they grab a Catcher who should be ready to go when Ryan Doumit’s contract is up. They also pay less than slot,so they save some cash for Sano and can spend a little more on the #49 pick and 2nd rd pick they got.

Posted by TJ | June 9, 2009 at 3:00 pm | Shortcut

As a big Padre fan, Tate at #3 would sit well with me. All the fan base wants is a change in direction. Quit drafting 1st basemen and slow corner outfielders out of college. Has anyone ever seen Petco, it’s huge. What you need to win in that park is to build your team like the Cardinals of the 80′s. Some pop at 1st & 3rd and speed everywhere else. It’s time to start putting some pressure on the opposing teams defense and catcher, and go wild on the base paths. The speed will also help catch some balls in the outfield. Even if Tate at #3 is an over draft, it is at the very least a change in thinking. Moorad is not afraid to push the envelope. Go Padres.

Posted by DB | June 9, 2009 at 3:24 pm | Shortcut

Sanchez at #4 is terrible for the Pirates. Spoils the whole draft day for me, to be honest.

Posted by VLad | June 9, 2009 at 3:29 pm | Shortcut

If the Pirates use the money they save on Sanchez, and use it to invest in signing bonuses in the DR, especially with Sano, I can live with the pick.

Posted by Josh | June 9, 2009 at 5:42 pm | Shortcut

[...] Callis, Baseball America [link and link] Total Correct Picks: 10 Correct Picks: Stephen Strasburg (1), Dustin Ackley (2), Donovan Tate (3), [...]

Posted by Scoring the mock drafts | River Avenue Blues | June 26, 2009 at 10:30 am | Shortcut

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