I'll unveil a final field of 64 projection after the regional hosts are announced Sunday afternoon. With Saturday's action completed, here is my final prediction for national seeds and hosts (note: this is what I think the committee will do, not necessarily what I think it should do). We'll reference WarrenNolan.com's Ratings Percentage Index rankings, updated through Saturday's action.

National seeds:

1. Arizona State
2. Virginia
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Coastal Carolina
6. UCLA
7. Louisville
8. Georgia Tech [...] Continue Reading »

Here's a quick look at how Friday's action could affect the NCAA tournament picture.

First off, a few teams won automatic bids Friday by winning their conference tournaments:

• Stony Brook won its second America East title in three years with a 4-2 win over Albany behind a stellar start from Fr. LHP Adam Brown (8.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 4 K).

• Rider toppled top-seeded Canisius, 4-2, to win the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference crown for the second time in three years. The Broncs came on strong down the stretch, winning 12 of their final 14 games heading into the conference tournament, where they went a perfect 3-0. Jr. 2B A.J. Albee earned tournament MVP honors with six runs, five hits and four RBIs in the three games; he set Rider single-season records this year for runs (62), RBIs (60) and assists (173). Canisius, meanwhile, follows a sterling regular season with a disappointing MAAC tournament for the third consecutive year. The Golden Griffs have still never been to regionals.

• Texas Christian added a Mountain West tournament championship to its regular-season title with a 2-0 win against New Mexico behind a strong start from Jr. RHP Steven Maxwell (6 IP, 6 H, 0 R). The Horned Frogs are a mortal lock to host a regional and a darkhorse national seed contender, but they probably are still too low in the Ratings Percentage Index to break into the top eight. TCU's RPI did climb three spots to No. 17 after the victory, per WarrenNolan.com.

Six national seeds just about locked up at this point (Virginia, Texas, Arizona State, Florida, Coastal Carolina, UCLA), and Louisville has probably done enough to feel secure about its national seed prospects as well. The Cardinals came from behind to beat South Florida, 9-7, on Friday, ensuring at least two wins in the Big East tournament. After winning the league's regular-season title, racking up 48 wins and climbing to No. 6 in the RPI, probably all Louisville needed to do was avoid a losing record in the conference tournament, and it has done so.
[...] Continue Reading »

The races for at-large spots and regional hosts are starting to crystallize after Wednesday's action. Quickie analysis, largely cribbed from my Twitter feed:

• I'm ready to pronounce Baylor and North Carolina State as safe at-large teams after wins against Kansas State and Clemson, respectively. Maybe you're not impressed with Baylor's 12-13 conference record or 4-11 mark against the top 50 in the RPI, but good luck finding enough worthy bubble teams to keep the Bears out even if they lose their next two games. And at least they are finishing strong, with six straight wins and three series wins in the last four weekends.

• Teams in very serious trouble after losses Wednesday: Southeastern Louisiana, Western Kentucky, Northwestern State, Kansas. All those teams essentially need to bounce back and run through their conference tournaments to capture automatic bids. In trouble, but less dire: Pittsburgh. Series loss to South Florida last weekend and Big East tourney-opening loss to Rutgers hurt, but that series win vs. Louisville and split vs. Connecticut still give the Panthers a better chance than many other bubble teams.

• Oregon State really helped itself with a 2-1 win vs. Oregon, but the Beavers still need to win their last series at home vs. Arizona.

• ACC Atlantic powers Clemson and Florida State are losing grips on hosting after losses today against N.C. State and Miami, respectively. Connecticut and Vanderbilt benefit in the race for the last host spot, and the Huskies probably now have the slight inside track because of geography. All other 15 hosts are now essentially locked up, particularly after Oklahoma pounded Kansas 12-2 and Miami hammered the Seminoles 9-3.

Here's our weekly look at how the races for national seeds, regional hosts and at-large bids are shaping up. The NCAA doesn't release its official Ratings Percentage Index report until Tuesday afternoon, so we'll use the updated RPI rankings at WarrenNolan.com, whose Nitty Gritty Report includes detailed schedule breakdowns for every team in the top 105, plus all additional conference leaders.

We'll discuss at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals after the first 14 weeks of the season:

National seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Texas, Virginia, Arizona State, Florida

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Coastal Carolina, UCLA, Louisville, South Carolina

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Auburn, Georgia Tech, Cal State Fullerton, Arkansas, Texas Christian

Our eight national seeds remain the same from last week, but South Carolina's hold on one of the eight seeds loosened after it dropped a home series to Florida, its fourth series loss of the season and its second in the last three weeks. The Gamecocks are now essentially even with Auburn and Georgia Tech in the race for the eighth national seed, with Fullerton and Arkansas very much in the picture as well. There is very little difference between the credentials of the Gamecocks and Tigers, who are back-to-back in the RPI (Nos. 12 and 13, per WarrenNolan.com). South Carolina finished a game ahead in conference play and won the head-to-head series against Auburn in March, but the Tigers have been hotter down the stretch, winning five straight weekend series, including a road series at Arkansas and a road sweep of Mississippi. The SEC tournament will have to be the deciding factor. The Yellow Jackets and Razorbacks are a few spots ahead of both Auburn and South Carolina in the RPI, and Georgia Tech is in better position than Arkansas, which must leap over two teams that finished ahead of it in its own conference. Tech's credentials are very comparable to Auburn's and South Carolina's, and a strong ACC tournament performance could easily give the Jackets the nod over both. [...] Continue Reading »

Here's our weekly look at how the races for national seeds, regional hosts and at-large bids are shaping up. One thing is obvious: It's not easy to get to 64 teams. Division I lacks a deep pool of teams with quality at-large resumes. It's almost inevitable that one, two or three teams will get in that don't deserve to get in.

The NCAA doesn't release its official Ratings Percentage Index report until Tuesday afternoon, so we'll use the updated RPI rankings at WarrenNolan.com, whose Nitty Gritty Report includes detailed schedule breakdowns for every team in the top 105, plus all additional conference leaders. But we'll also consult the RPI Needs Report at boydsworld.com, keeping in mind that the RPI figures at WarrenNolan and Boyd's have slight variances.

We'll discuss at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals after the first 13 weeks of the season:

National seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Texas, Virginia, Arizona State, Florida

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): South Carolina, Coastal Carolina, UCLA, Louisville

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Cal State Fullerton, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Arkansas, Miami, Texas Christian

One change from last week: South Carolina replaces Arkansas as a national seed after sweeping the Razorbacks in Fayetteville. South Carolina is now very close to a lock for a national seed, even with an RPI outside the top eight (14th). The Gamecocks can probably even afford to lose their home series against Florida this weekend and still earn a national seed, provided they are not swept. South Carolina and Florida are three games ahead of any other team in the league, and the Gamecocks have lost only one SEC series all season. They also have a sterling 19-8 record against the RPI top 50, which offsets their 13 games against teams outside the top 200. [...] Continue Reading »

Here's our weekly look at how the races for national seeds, regional hosts and at-large bids are shaping up. The NCAA doesn't release its official Ratings Percentage Index report until Tuesday afternoon, so we'll use the updated RPI rankings at WarrenNolan.com, whose Nitty Gritty Report includes detailed schedule breakdowns for every team in the top 105, plus all additional conference leaders. But we'll also consult the RPI Needs Report at boydsworld.com, keeping in mind that the RPI figures at WarrenNolan and Boyd's have slight variances.

We'll discuss at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals after the first 12 weeks of the season:

National seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Texas, Virginia, Arizona State, Florida

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Coastal Carolina, Arkansas, Louisville, UCLA

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): South Carolina, Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Texas Christian, Cal State Fullerton, Auburn

Just one change from last week: UCLA edges past South Carolina for the eighth national seed. The Gamecocks still control their own destiny in this discussion. If South Carolina wins its last two series against Arkansas and Florida, the committee will not be able to deny it a national seed, even if its RPI remains outside the top eight (and the Needs Report says the Gamecocks, currently 20th, cannot climb back into the top eight). Even going 3-3 over those last two weekends might be enough. But losing a road series at Kentucky this past weekend was an unexpected setback, and coupled with the Gamecocks' RPI deficiencies, that series temporarily knocked them out of the driver's seat for a national seed.

UCLA moved back into national seed position with a road series sweep of Washington, rebounding admirably from a sweep at the hands of Arizona State the week before. The Washington series moved the Bruins into a tie for second place in the Pac-10, and their remaining schedule (Southern California, at Cal, Washington State) is very manageable. UCLA is in good shape in the RPI (No. 8), and has a nice 21-10 record against the top 100 in the RPI.

With Auburn and Fullerton surging, there are now 15 teams with plausible shots at the eight national seeds, and a lot can change in the next three weeks. [...] Continue Reading »

Here's our weekly look at how the races for national seeds, regional hosts and at-large bids are shaping up. The NCAA doesn't release its official Ratings Percentage Index report until Tuesday afternoon (and it's only updated through Sunday's games), so we'll use the updated RPI rankings at WarrenNolan.com, whose Nitty Gritty Report includes detailed schedule breakdowns for every team in the top 105, plus all additional conference leaders. We'll also consult the RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World, keeping in mind that the RPI figures at WarrenNolan and Boyd's have slight variances.

We'll discuss at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals after the first 11 weeks of the season:

National Seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Texas, Virginia, Arizona State, Florida

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Coastal Carolina, South Carolina, Louisville, Arkansas

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Mississippi, Texas Christian, Cal State Fullerton

One change from the eight national seeds we listed last week: Louisville replaces UCLA, which was swept at home by Arizona State and is now just 8-10 since starting the season 22-0. Louisville's 4-0 week included an important midweek win against Kentucky and a sweep of Rutgers, helping the Cardinals climb to No. 5 in the RPI. Assuming the Cardinals can overtake Connecticut and win the Big East, they stand a good chance to land a national seed. But it's hard to see the No. 2 team in the Big East getting a national seed, regardless of how strong its RPI is. We're banking on a strong finish for Louisville, however. [...] Continue Reading »

We deviated from the typical Field of 64 projection last week and focused instead on how the races for national seeds, regional hosts and at-large bids are shaping up. We got good feedback on that format, so let's stick with it.

We'll discuss at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals after the first 10 weeks of the season. All Ratings Percentage Index figures come from WarrenNolan.com and are updated through Monday.

National seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Texas, Virginia, Arizona State, Florida, Arkansas, UCLA

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Coastal Carolina, South Carolina

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Louisville, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Louisiana State

Only one change from last week's eight national seeds: Coastal Carolina replaces Georgia Tech. The Chanticleers' 17-game winning streak has helped their RPI climb to No. 4 (and Boyd's World has them at No. 1), and it's hard to envision them stumbling at any point against their Big South schedule. They do have a bad RPI series coming up this weekend against UNC Asheville (234th), but they can negate the damage that series will do to their RPI with a mid-week win at Virginia today. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, is still likely to earn a national seed if it holds on to its current lead in the ACC, but remaining series against North Carolina State and Illinois-Chicago will hurt its RPI, so there is little margin for error. For now, we'll drop them out of the top eight following a home series loss to Virginia Tech.

South Carolina needs to run the table to finish with an RPI in the top eight, according to the very useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World, but the Gamecocks should get a national seed even without a top-eight RPI if they hold on to their current lead in the SEC. South Carolina has won its first six conference series, and that should mean more than its No. 18 RPI. [...] Continue Reading »