This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it's time to roll out our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Tuesday here on the College Blog, we'll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is based on performance through 13 weeks and projection based on remaining schedule, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the NCAA's official RPI report, which is released every Tuesday and is updated through the weekend's games. We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World, which provides a rough sketch of what teams need to do in order to reach important RPI benchmarks like finishing inside the top 45 (a loose target for an at-large bid). And we'll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI—figures that the Division I Baseball Committee looks at when constructing the field of 64.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 13 weeks of the season:

National Seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Florida State, Baylor, Florida

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Oregon, Kentucky, North Carolina, UCLA, South Carolina

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Louisiana State, North Carolina State, Stanford

Changes from last week: Kentucky replaces LSU as a national seed. [...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it's time to roll out our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Tuesday here on the College Blog, we'll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is based on performance through 12 weeks and projection based on remaining schedule, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the NCAA's official RPI report, which is released every Tuesday and is updated through the weekend's games. We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World, which provides a rough sketch of what teams need to do in order to reach important RPI benchmarks like finishing inside the top 45 (a loose target for an at-large bid). And we'll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI, using the official figures from the NCAA's Nitty Gritty Report..
[...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it's time to roll out our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Tuesday here on the College Blog, we'll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the NCAA's official RPI report, which is released every Tuesday and is updated through the weekend's games. We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World, which provides a rough sketch of what teams need to do in order to reach important RPI benchmarks like finishing inside the top 45 (a loose target for an at-large bid). And we'll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI—there is some margin for error with those figures, but they are accurate enough to serve our purposes.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 11 weeks of the season: [...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it's time to roll out our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Tuesday here on the College Blog, we'll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the NCAA's official RPI report, which is released every Tuesday and is updated through the weekend's games. We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World, which provides a rough sketch of what teams need to do in order to reach important RPI benchmarks like finishing inside the top 45 (a loose target for an at-large bid). And we'll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI—there is some margin for error with those figures, but they are accurate enough to serve our purposes.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first nine weeks of the season: [...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it's time to roll out our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Tuesday here on the College Blog, we'll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the NCAA's official RPI report, which is released every Tuesday and is updated through the weekend's games. We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World. And we'll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI—there is some margin for error with those figures, but they are accurate enough to serve our purposes.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first nine weeks of the season:

[...] Continue Reading »

With one day of games remaining before the NCAA tournament field is unveiled, the postseason picture is finally starting to crystallize. We'll address the national seed, hosting and at-large races later, but let's kick off the Saturday roundup with a look at the teams that punched their tickets to regionals by winning automatic bids Saturday, and the bubble implications of each result:

• Top-seeded Charlotte beat Richmond, 9-4, to win the Atlantic 10 Conference title. Joe Yermal (6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K) earned the win, and Most Outstanding Player Corey Shaylor had three more hits, capping a tournament during which he hit .636 for Charlotte, which swept through the tournament unbeaten for the third time in five years. BUBBLE IMPLICATIONS: None; the A-10 was going to be a one-bid league regardless of who won the automatic bid.

• Belmont won its first-ever Atlantic Sun Conference title (and secured its first trip to regionals) with a 9-7 win against Mercer, capping an unbeaten run through the conference tournament. Belmont, which won two of three at Stetson last weekend, became the first No. 6 seed to win the A-Sun tournament since Jacksonville in 2003. BUBBLE IMPLICATIONS: The Atlantic Sun was likely to be a three-bid league no matter how the title game played out, as Stetson and Jacksonville look like at-large teams. Mercer has an at-large case as well, and if the Hatters or Dolphins had won the automatic bid, the Bears would have had a real chance at an at-large spot. But it's hard to see them earning a bid as the fourth team in the A-Sun with an RPI in the 50s and a fourth-place finish in the regular season. [...] Continue Reading »

UC Irvine Matt Summers threw the second no-hitter of the week in a 2-0 win against Long Beach State on Friday. Summers needed just 105 pitches to hold the Dirtbags hitless in a nine-inning game for the first time in LBSU's history. It was the fourth no-hitter in UCI history. He walked one, hit a batter and struck out five in his second straight complete-game shutout. The converted center fielder completed a truly remarkable regular season as Irvine's Friday starter, going 10-2, 1.74 and going 8-0 in Big West Conference starts.

Two more NCAA tournament tickets were punched Friday. In perhaps the most stunning development of the season, New Mexico upset top-seeded Texas Christian for the second time this week to complete a perfect 4-0 run to the Mountain West Conference tournament. The Lobos struggled through a brutal regular season with a very young team—finding themselves in a huge hole after getting swept in tough nonconference series early by Arizona State, Creighton and Oklahoma State—and they'll head to their second consecutive regional with a 20-39 overall record.

"I was worried the schedule might take away their confidence," Birmingham said of the regular season. "It took time for them to figure some things out, but now these guys know they can compete with anyone. They just beat TCU, so they can pretty much beat anybody."

And Maine won the America East Conference tournament for the first time since 2006, pounding Albany 10-1. Stephen Perakslis (7.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K) turned in a strong start for the Black Bears, who got homers from Ian and Justin Leisenheimer to break the game open with four runs in the seventh.

Maine's championship has no effect on the bubble picture, since the America East will be a one-bid league regardless (though Stony Brook went 42-12 and put together a strong RPI for an AEC team—No. 81, still not close to at-large range). But UNM's shocking title obviously hurts bubble teams, transforming the MWC from a one-bid league to a two-bid league.

On to the mini Stock Report. Here's a look at how Friday's action affected the races for national seeds, hosting spots and at-large bids. [...] Continue Reading »

Here's a look at how Thursday's conference tournament action affected the races for national seeds, hosting spots and at-large bids:

NATIONAL SEED RACE

Florida State reversed its sliding momentum with a big 6-3 win against Clemson, while Georgia Tech outlasted North Carolina State 6-5 in the longest game in ACC tournament history, winning on Mott Hyde's steal of home in the top of the 15th. This means either FSU or Georgia Tech is assured of at least two wins in the conference tournament, because the two teams will go head-to-head Friday. That game might very well determine which team grabs the ACC's third national seed.

The ACC still seems likely to get three national seeds (Virginia and North Carolina are locked in), but it's also possible that Texas A&M could give the Big 12 a second national seed at the expense of both FSU and Tech. The Aggies beat Kansas State 4-1 to improve to 2-0 in the double-elimination Big 12 tournament, but the Aggies still don't have as good a resume as either the Seminoles or Yellow Jackets. Both ACC teams have stronger RPIs and better records against the top 25 and top 100. It still feels like A&M is competing with Texas and Rice for one national seed, and both those teams rebounded from losses with wins Thursday. Texas rode a complete-game one-hitter from Taylor Jungmann to a 6-1 win against Baylor, while Rice overcame an early 5-0 deficit to beat Memphis, 8-5. For now, Texas still looks like the strongest bet of the three to net a national seed. [...] Continue Reading »

Conference tournaments get underway in most leagues this week, so our final Stock Report of the season takes a look at what's on the line in conference tourneys, as well as in the handful of leagues that are still playing regular-season games. As usual, we're just looking at who's in, who's out, and who's on the bubble for regionals, hosting spots and national seeds.

During this discussion, we will reference the the Boyd's World pseudo Ratings Percentage Index rankings, which have been updated through the weekend's games and are close to the NCAA's official RPI rankings (which will be updated Tuesday afternoon here). We'll make use of records against the top 50 or top 100 in the RPI, but keep in mind that there might be slight variations between those figures and the official figures.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 13 weeks of the season:

NATIONAL SEEDS

SECURE TEAMS: Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Virginia, North Carolina

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Texas, Arizona State, Florida State

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Georgia Tech, Rice, Texas A&M, Oregon State, Cal State Fullerton [...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so every Wednesday here on the College Blog, we examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the NCAA's official Ratings Percentage Index report, which was updated Tuesday. We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World. And we'll make use of records against the top 50 or top 100 in the RPI, but keep in mind that those figures are not official, and there might be slight discrepancies between those figures and the NCAA's official figures.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 13 weeks of the season:

NATIONAL SEEDS

SECURE TEAMS: Virginia, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida State

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Oregon State, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Texas, Arizona State, North Carolina [...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so every Wednesday here on the College Blog, we examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the NCAA's official Ratings Percentage Index report, which was updated Tuesday. We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World. And we'll make use of records against the top 50 or top 100 in the RPI, but keep in mind that those figures are not official, and there might be slight discrepancies between those figures and the NCAA's official figures.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 12 weeks of the season:

NATIONAL SEEDS

SECURE TEAMS: Virginia, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Arizona State, Oregon State

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Florida State, Texas

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Southern Mississippi, Texas A&M [...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so every Wednesday here on the College Blog, we examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the pseudo Ratings Percentage Index figures at warrennolan.com, which are very close to the NCAA's official RPI rankings (which are released on Tuesdays but can change quickly). We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World. And we'll make use of records against the top 50 or top 100 in the RPI, according to the Nitty Gritty Report at warrennolan.com.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first eight weeks of the season:

NATIONAL SEEDS

SECURE TEAMS: Virginia, South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt, Oregon State, Arizona State

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Florida State, Texas

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Southern Mississippi [...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so every Wednesday here on the College Blog, we examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the pseudo Ratings Percentage Index figures at warrennolan.com, which are very close to the NCAA's official RPI rankings (which are released on Tuesdays but can change quickly). We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World. And we'll make use of records against the top 50 or top 100 in the RPI, according to the Nitty Gritty Report at warrennolan.com.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first eight weeks of the season:

NATIONAL SEEDS

SECURE TEAMS: Virginia, South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt, Oregon State, Arizona State

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Texas A&M, Florida State

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Georgia Tech, Texas, North Carolina

One change from last week: Florida State replaces North Carolina as the last national seed. UNC, FSU and Georgia Tech are probably all competing for one national seed, and there is not much separation between the three teams—indeed, they rank sixth through eighth, respectively, in the RPI. Tech has the best conference record of the three (17-4), but its conference slate has also been less rigorous to this point. UNC's back-to-back series losses against N.C. State and Miami have dropped it to 13-8 in the conference and nullified the edge it got from winning a road series against Florida State. The Seminoles, whose case is built around a 3-1 record in midweek games against Florida and a 14-7 mark in the ACC, can strengthen their position with a series win at Miami this weekend, or fall behind in the pecking order with a series loss. [...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so every Tuesday here on the College Blog, we examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the pseudo Ratings Percentage Index figures at boydsworld.com, which are very close to the NCAA's official RPI rankings (which are released here on Tuesday afternoons). We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World. And we'll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI—there is some margin for error with those figures, but they are accurate enough to serve our purposes.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first eight weeks of the season: [...] Continue Reading »

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it's time to roll out our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Tuesday here on the College Blog, we'll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the pseudo Ratings Percentage Index figures at boydsworld.com, which are very close to the NCAA's official RPI rankings (which have not been released yet). We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World. And we'll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI—there is some margin for error with those figures, but they are accurate enough to serve our purposes.

We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first eight weeks of the season: [...] Continue Reading »

I'll unveil a final field of 64 projection after the regional hosts are announced Sunday afternoon. With Saturday's action completed, here is my final prediction for national seeds and hosts (note: this is what I think the committee will do, not necessarily what I think it should do). We'll reference WarrenNolan.com's Ratings Percentage Index rankings, updated through Saturday's action.

National seeds:

1. Arizona State
2. Virginia
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Coastal Carolina
6. UCLA
7. Louisville
8. Georgia Tech [...] Continue Reading »

Here's a quick look at how Friday's action could affect the NCAA tournament picture.

First off, a few teams won automatic bids Friday by winning their conference tournaments:

• Stony Brook won its second America East title in three years with a 4-2 win over Albany behind a stellar start from Fr. LHP Adam Brown (8.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 4 K).

• Rider toppled top-seeded Canisius, 4-2, to win the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference crown for the second time in three years. The Broncs came on strong down the stretch, winning 12 of their final 14 games heading into the conference tournament, where they went a perfect 3-0. Jr. 2B A.J. Albee earned tournament MVP honors with six runs, five hits and four RBIs in the three games; he set Rider single-season records this year for runs (62), RBIs (60) and assists (173). Canisius, meanwhile, follows a sterling regular season with a disappointing MAAC tournament for the third consecutive year. The Golden Griffs have still never been to regionals.

• Texas Christian added a Mountain West tournament championship to its regular-season title with a 2-0 win against New Mexico behind a strong start from Jr. RHP Steven Maxwell (6 IP, 6 H, 0 R). The Horned Frogs are a mortal lock to host a regional and a darkhorse national seed contender, but they probably are still too low in the Ratings Percentage Index to break into the top eight. TCU's RPI did climb three spots to No. 17 after the victory, per WarrenNolan.com.

Six national seeds just about locked up at this point (Virginia, Texas, Arizona State, Florida, Coastal Carolina, UCLA), and Louisville has probably done enough to feel secure about its national seed prospects as well. The Cardinals came from behind to beat South Florida, 9-7, on Friday, ensuring at least two wins in the Big East tournament. After winning the league's regular-season title, racking up 48 wins and climbing to No. 6 in the RPI, probably all Louisville needed to do was avoid a losing record in the conference tournament, and it has done so.
[...] Continue Reading »

The races for at-large spots and regional hosts are starting to crystallize after Wednesday's action. Quickie analysis, largely cribbed from my Twitter feed:

• I'm ready to pronounce Baylor and North Carolina State as safe at-large teams after wins against Kansas State and Clemson, respectively. Maybe you're not impressed with Baylor's 12-13 conference record or 4-11 mark against the top 50 in the RPI, but good luck finding enough worthy bubble teams to keep the Bears out even if they lose their next two games. And at least they are finishing strong, with six straight wins and three series wins in the last four weekends.

• Teams in very serious trouble after losses Wednesday: Southeastern Louisiana, Western Kentucky, Northwestern State, Kansas. All those teams essentially need to bounce back and run through their conference tournaments to capture automatic bids. In trouble, but less dire: Pittsburgh. Series loss to South Florida last weekend and Big East tourney-opening loss to Rutgers hurt, but that series win vs. Louisville and split vs. Connecticut still give the Panthers a better chance than many other bubble teams.

• Oregon State really helped itself with a 2-1 win vs. Oregon, but the Beavers still need to win their last series at home vs. Arizona.

• ACC Atlantic powers Clemson and Florida State are losing grips on hosting after losses today against N.C. State and Miami, respectively. Connecticut and Vanderbilt benefit in the race for the last host spot, and the Huskies probably now have the slight inside track because of geography. All other 15 hosts are now essentially locked up, particularly after Oklahoma pounded Kansas 12-2 and Miami hammered the Seminoles 9-3.

Here's our weekly look at how the races for national seeds, regional hosts and at-large bids are shaping up. The NCAA doesn't release its official Ratings Percentage Index report until Tuesday afternoon, so we'll use the updated RPI rankings at WarrenNolan.com, whose Nitty Gritty Report includes detailed schedule breakdowns for every team in the top 105, plus all additional conference leaders.

We'll discuss at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals after the first 14 weeks of the season:

National seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Texas, Virginia, Arizona State, Florida

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Coastal Carolina, UCLA, Louisville, South Carolina

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Auburn, Georgia Tech, Cal State Fullerton, Arkansas, Texas Christian

Our eight national seeds remain the same from last week, but South Carolina's hold on one of the eight seeds loosened after it dropped a home series to Florida, its fourth series loss of the season and its second in the last three weeks. The Gamecocks are now essentially even with Auburn and Georgia Tech in the race for the eighth national seed, with Fullerton and Arkansas very much in the picture as well. There is very little difference between the credentials of the Gamecocks and Tigers, who are back-to-back in the RPI (Nos. 12 and 13, per WarrenNolan.com). South Carolina finished a game ahead in conference play and won the head-to-head series against Auburn in March, but the Tigers have been hotter down the stretch, winning five straight weekend series, including a road series at Arkansas and a road sweep of Mississippi. The SEC tournament will have to be the deciding factor. The Yellow Jackets and Razorbacks are a few spots ahead of both Auburn and South Carolina in the RPI, and Georgia Tech is in better position than Arkansas, which must leap over two teams that finished ahead of it in its own conference. Tech's credentials are very comparable to Auburn's and South Carolina's, and a strong ACC tournament performance could easily give the Jackets the nod over both. [...] Continue Reading »

Here's our weekly look at how the races for national seeds, regional hosts and at-large bids are shaping up. One thing is obvious: It's not easy to get to 64 teams. Division I lacks a deep pool of teams with quality at-large resumes. It's almost inevitable that one, two or three teams will get in that don't deserve to get in.

The NCAA doesn't release its official Ratings Percentage Index report until Tuesday afternoon, so we'll use the updated RPI rankings at WarrenNolan.com, whose Nitty Gritty Report includes detailed schedule breakdowns for every team in the top 105, plus all additional conference leaders. But we'll also consult the RPI Needs Report at boydsworld.com, keeping in mind that the RPI figures at WarrenNolan and Boyd's have slight variances.

We'll discuss at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals after the first 13 weeks of the season:

National seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Texas, Virginia, Arizona State, Florida

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): South Carolina, Coastal Carolina, UCLA, Louisville

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Cal State Fullerton, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Arkansas, Miami, Texas Christian

One change from last week: South Carolina replaces Arkansas as a national seed after sweeping the Razorbacks in Fayetteville. South Carolina is now very close to a lock for a national seed, even with an RPI outside the top eight (14th). The Gamecocks can probably even afford to lose their home series against Florida this weekend and still earn a national seed, provided they are not swept. South Carolina and Florida are three games ahead of any other team in the league, and the Gamecocks have lost only one SEC series all season. They also have a sterling 19-8 record against the RPI top 50, which offsets their 13 games against teams outside the top 200. [...] Continue Reading »