Conference champions have now been decided in every league except the Southeastern and West Coast conferences, so now seems like a good time to begin sorting out who gets at-large bids and who gets left out. Here’s a conference-by-conference look at the teams that should be safely in, followed by a bubble breakdown:
ACC
In (8 teams): North Carolina (automatic), Florida State, Virginia, Clemson, North Carolina State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest.
AEC
In (1 team): Albany (automatic).
A-10
In (1 team): Charlotte (automatic).
A-Sun
In (2 teams): Jacksonville (automatic), Stetson.
Big Ten
In (2 teams): Ohio State (automatic), Michigan.
Big 12
In (6 teams): Texas A&M (automatic), Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Nebraska.
Big East
In (3 teams): Rutgers (automatic), Louisville, St. John’s.
Big South
In (1 team): Coastal Carolina (automatic).
Big West
In (4 teams): UC Riverside (automatic), Long Beach State, UC Irvine, Cal State Fullerton.
CAA
In (1 team): Virginia Commonwealth (automatic).
CUSA
In (3 teams): Rice (automatic), East Carolina, Southern Mississippi.
Horizon
In (1 team): Illinois-Chicago (automatic).
Ivy
In (1 team): Brown (automatic).
MAAC
In (1 team): Le Moyne (automatic).
MAC
In (1 team): Kent State (automatic).
MEAC
In (1 team): Bethune-Cookman (automatic).
Mid-Con
In (1 team): Oral Roberts (automatic).
MVC
In (2 teams): Creighton (automatic), Wichita State.
MWC
In (1 team): Texas Christian (automatic).
Northeast
In (1 team): Monmouth (automatic).
OVC
In (1 team): Austin Peay State (automatic).
Pac-10
In (2 teams): Arizona State (automatic), Arizona.
Patriot
In (1 team): Lafayette (automatic).
SEC
In (6 teams): Vanderbilt, Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee.
SoCon
In (1 team): Wofford (automatic).
Southland
In (1 team): Sam Houston State (automatic).
Sun Belt
In (2 teams): New Orleans (automatic), Louisiana-Lafayette.
SWAC
In (1 team): Prairie View A&M (automatic).
WAC
In (1 team): Fresno State (automatic).
WCC
In (3 teams): San Diego, Pepperdine, Gonzaga.
That gives us 61 teams, leaving three more at-large spots. One or two of those spots are sure to go to the Pac-10, and one spot will almost certainly go to the SoCon, but to which teams? We’ll cross off Brigham Young and California because of poor RPIs. Here are the remaining candidates:
Oregon State. 34th in the RPI, fifth place in the Pac-10 (10-14). 38-17 overall. Key wins: at Georgia (3-0), Missouri (1-0), Texas A&M (1-1), Evansville (3-0), California (2-1), UCLA (2-1). Lost four of final five conference series, but has pedigree as defending national champions. Verdict: In.
UCLA. 48th in the RPI, third place in the Pac-10 (14-10). 30-26 overall. Key wins: Winthrop (2-1), East Carolina (3-0), Pepperdine (2-0), UC Riverside (1-1), UC Irvine (1-1), California (2-1). Verdict: In.
College of Charleston. 40th in the RPI, first place in SoCon regular-season standings (20-7). 39-19 overall. Key wins: Western Carolina (3-0), South Carolina (1-0), Winthrop (1-1). Pedigree as 2006 super-regional team, and the head-to-head sweep vs. WCU, but just not enough quality nonconference wins. Verdict: Out.
Western Carolina. 42nd in the RPI, second place in SoCon regular-season standings (20-7). 40-18 overall. Key wins: Georgia Tech (1-0), North Carolina State (1-0), Clemson (1-1), Georgia (1-1), Ohio State (2-0). Verdict: In.
Minnesota. 54th in the RPI, second place in Big Ten regular-season standings (18-9). 39-15 overall. Key wins: Mississippi (1-1), Arkansas (1-1), Ohio State (2-3, counting conference tournament). Split final three conference series. Big Ten probably isn’t a three-bid league, though it would be nice to see the Gophers rewarded for holding their own against a fairly challenging nonconference slate. Verdict: Out.
Alabama. 63rd in the RPI, seventh place in SEC regular-season standings (15-15). 31-26 overall. Key wins: Tennessee (2-1), Georgia (2-1), South Carolina (2-1), Arkansas (2-1), Mississippi State (2-1). Won three of final four conference series but went 0-2 in SEC tournament. The RPI and the poor tournament showing are a killer. Verdict: Out.
Troy. 53rd in the RPI, fourth place in Sun Belt regular-season standings (16-14). 34-25 overall. Key wins: Alabama (1-0), Auburn (1-1), Michigan (1-1), Coastal Carolina (2-1). Just not a good enough performance in conference play. Verdict: Out.
Oklahoma. 27th in the RPI, seventh place in Big 12 regular-season standings (11-16). 34-24 overall. Key wins: UC Riverside (3-0), Creighton (2-0), Wichita State (1-0), San Diego (1-0), Texas A&M (2-1), Kansas State (2-1). Lost six of final eight conference series, but went 2-1 in Big 12 tournament with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma State. Strong RPI and solid tournament showing can’t overshadow poor conference record and bad second half. Verdict: Out.
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What about Memphis? Key wins: Missouri, Southern Miss (swept), Clemson, Tulane, took Rice to all-or-nothing conference semifinal. Finished T4 in CUSA at 12-12. Has an RPI of 50. They’re probably out, but deserve consideration.
Posted by texd | May 27, 2007 at 6:54 pm | ShortcutIt’s about time BYU was recognized and got an at large bid. We have played very well and deserve a shot. TCU got out of Las Vegas with thier lives…not to say alot of luck! Our kids are Fresh and Soph playing up with Seniors and they never go away.
Posted by cougar dad | May 28, 2007 at 11:12 am | Shortcut