Baseball America | Blog | Baseball America College Blog | Thursday Roundup: Mini Stock Report

Here's a quick look at how Thursday's action impacted the postseason picture. We'll reference WarrenNolan.com RPI figures rather than the more accurate Boyd's World rankings because the Warren Nolan figures have been updated to reflect Thursday's action, while the Boyd's figures won't be updated until Friday morning. The Warren Nolan rankings are close enough to suit our purposes here.

NATIONAL SEED RACE

South Carolina avoided an 0-2 showing in the SEC tournament with a 5-3 win against Auburn, which was probably necessary to keep its national seed hopes afloat. As we wrote yesterday, the Gamecocks are likely competing for the last national seed with Rice and Stanford, with Texas A&M in the discussion. The Owls and Aggies were also in action Thursday and both lost, as Rice was knocked off by red-hot Memphis, 3-2, while A&M fell to Missouri, 5-3.

Memphis, which has won 14 of its last 17 games (including three road series wins, one of them at UCF), improved to 2-0 in pool play at the C-USA tournament. The Tigers clinched a berth in Sunday's C-USA championship game; even if they lose to Houston on Friday and Rice beats Southern Miss, the Owls and Tigers would finish 2-1 in pool play and Memphis would have the head-to-head tie-breaker. So Rice cannot couple its regular-season title with a C-USA tournament championship, which deals a significant blow to its national seed hopes. Rice still has at least a chance if South Carolina loses Friday and Stanford loses its series against Cal, but more realistically this is probably now a two-team race between the Gamecocks and Cardinal, who each have 11 wins against the top 25 in the RPI, compared with Rice's five.

REGIONAL HOST RACE

Yesterday in this space, we budged just a little bit, acknowledging that Mississippi State might have a chance to displace Kentucky as a host with a win against the Wildcats on Thursday followed by a run to the SEC tournament championship. Kentucky's 5-1 win should put an end to that talk; the Wildcats have a stronger overall body of work than the Bulldogs, even though MSU was stronger down the stretch and did sweep the season-ending series between the two teams. Kentucky finished two games ahead in the conference standings and has now gotten off to a 2-0 start in Hoover, which was all it needed to do to secure its hosting position, the way we see it.

Virginia also firmed up its hosting position with its win against Clemson on Thursday. With an updated WarrenNolan.com pRPI of No. 10, a 17-11 mark against the top 50 and an 18-12 record in the top RPI conference, Virginia looks quite safe as a host.

So that leaves Arizona and Cal State Fullerton battling for the last spot, just as we laid it out Tuesday, with Arizona entering this weekend as the slight favorite. Stay tuned.

AT-LARGE RACE

• As we wrote in Thursday's ACC tournament notebook, Wake Forest can breathe easy after its 7-3 win against N.C. State. The Demon Deacons salvaged their at-large chances with a sweep of Clemson last weekend, but they needed to avoid an 0-3 showing in the conference tournament. Beating a top-10 RPI team was just what the doctor ordered—they're in.

• Texas could be in real trouble. The Longhorns capped a disastrous finishing stretch with an 0-2 performance in the Big 12 tournament, getting bounced by Kansas 4-2 on Thursday. Texas lost its final three weekend series, has just a 3-8 record against the top 25 and a Warren Nolan RPI of No. 49. That borderline RPI, coupled with a solid 14-10 record in the Big 12, might still be enough to get the 'Horns into the tournament, because Texas isn't the only bubble team that fell on its face in its conference tournament (see also: Indiana State, Wichita State, Georgia and College of Charleston, all of whom were in our latest field of 64 on Tuesday but went 2-and-'cue in conference tournies). But if mid-major favorites start falling, the Longhorns could be on the chopping block, because the committee places plenty of value in how a team finishes the season.

• As alluded to above, College of Charleston was knocked out of the Southern Conference tournament by Elon, 14-12, in a game that featured a SoCon tournament-record 39 hits and 26 runs. The Phoenix carried a 14-9 lead into the ninth, but CofC rallied for three runs before stranding the bases loaded to end it. Charleston, like Indiana State, can cling to its regular-season title (which it shared with top-seeded Appalachian State) for hope. The Cougars (40-17) also have 10 more wins than the Longhorns (30-21), just one fewer win against the top 25 (2-3) and just two fewer against the top 50 (5-10), despite playing in a mid-major conference rather than the Big 12. For those reasons, Charleston (No. 46 in the RPI) is probably in better shape than Texas.

• Back to the Big 12 for a moment: surging Oklahoma knocked off top-seeded Baylor 3-2, improving to 4-0 this season against the Bears. We already proclaimed OU as a safe at-large team yesterday, but if Oklahoma can go on to win the Big 12 tourney title, it could play its way all the way up to a No. 2 seed. The Sooners jumped to No. 37 in the Warren Nolan RPI.

• St. John's improved to 2-0 in the Big East tourney with a 6-3 win against Seton Hall. Like CofC, the Johnnies shared the regular-season crown but earned the No. 2 seed in the conference tourney. Their RPI has rebounded a bit from last weekend's series loss to the Pirates, checking in at No. 53 on Warren Nolan. They still have work to do, but an at-large bid is looking like at least a possibility again if they can't win the automatic bid.

• The Big Ten's lone bubble team, Michigan State, lost to surging Indiana, 6-4. The Spartans remain in the at-large discussion because of their No. 44 RPI, but their fifth-place regular-season finish is a fly in the ointment. They need to make a deep run through the loser's bracket to have a chance.

• Top-seeded UNC Wilmington won its CAA tournament opener against Virginia Commonwealth, 8-5. Avoiding an 0-2 showing should be enough to get the Seahawks (No. 42) into the field as an at-large, if necessary. They're safe—but teams like Texas, CofC and the other teams that struggled this week need to root hard for them to win the CAA automatic bid.

• Speaking of mid-major favorites, Texas Christian somehow won despite an epic ninth-inning meltdown against San Diego State. TCU carried a 14-4 lead into the final frame, but the Aztecs rallied for 11 runs in the inning to take a 15-14 lead, with most of the damage coming against Trey Teakell (5.1 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 7 ER). But the Horned Frogs bounced back with two in the bottom of the inning to win 16-15. TCU is another team that will be assured of an at-large spot if it doesn't win the automatic bid; it is off to a 1-0 start.

• New Mexico is actually the top seed in the MWC, and the Lobos remained hot with a 13-0 drubbing of UNLV. We included the Lobos in our field Tuesday despite an RPI outside the top 60, but New Mexico does need to boost its RPI this week. Warren Nolan has UNM at No. 60 now. For the sake of comparison, New Mexico has more wins against the top 50 (8-10) than Texas, Charleston, Indiana State, Wichita State, Coastal Carolina, UNCW, Missouri State, Louisville, Tulane, St. John's, even Oregon State (7-9). And they won their regular-season title; this should be one of those cases where New Mexico can get an at-large spot even with an RPI outside the top 50, like St. John's did a year ago (it was No. 54). New Mexico has many more quality RPI wins than the Red Storm did in 2011 (1-6 against the top 50).

• Missouri State staved off elimination briefly in the Missouri Valley tournament with an 11-8 win against Bradley, but the Bears were bounced later in the day by Southern Illinois, 3-2. Still, after finishing just a half-game out of first in the regular-season and going 2-2 in the conference tourney, the Bears (No. 40 in the RPI) are in good shape—better shape even than regular-season champ Indiana State, which went 0-2 in the tourney. Given the poor tournament showings of power-conference bubble teams Auburn, Georgia and Texas—all of whom are behind the two MVC teams in the RPI—we'll keep both the Bears and Sycamores in our field of 64, making the Valley a three-bid league. Missouri State should feel fairly comfortable, if not quite "secure." Indiana State remains on the bubble, but on the right side of it.

• In the Southland, Southeastern Louisiana won a big winner's bracket game against Texas State, 7-1. The Lions improved to 2-0 in the tourney; at No. 51 in the RPI and 6-3 against the top 50, they might already have a better shot at an at-large bid than Texas, and they're still playing, with further opportunities to pad their resume. Sam Houston State also won in an elimination game, 7-1 against McNeese State; we'll say the regular-season champion Bearkats can put themselves into the field with one more win, but they stand a solid chance to get in even if they get eliminated by Texas A&M-Corpus Christi tomorrow. Texas State's at-large chances are probably shot; the Bobcats are No. 61 in the RPI.

• Bad news for bubble teams: New Mexico State lost its WAC tournament opener, 15-8 against Fresno State. The Aggies (No. 33 in the RPI) are the lone team in the WAC with a realistic at-large shot, and they will probably get in even with an 0-2 showing this week. So bubble teams better hope they make a run through the loser's bracket to keep the WAC from becoming a two-bid league.

• Gonzaga lost the opener of its final series at BYU, 6-4, following a Tuesday loss at Washington State. The Zags were one of the least secure teams in our field of 64 Tuesday, and they were in tentatively with the caveat that they needed to finish strong. Back-to-back losses to start the final week is a crippling blow; the Zags are probably out even if they win their final two games at BYU, but their RPI (No. 50) keeps them in the discussion.

• Auburn was bounced from the SEC tournament by South Carolina, 5-3. The Tigers finished 1-2 in Hoover, with the victory coming Wednesday in an elimination game against Georgia (which we dismissed from at-large consideration yesterday). Auburn went 13-17 in the SEC, which can be enough to get an at-large spot with a strong RPI. Auburn's is not strong (No. 59). Despite the four marquee series wins that have propped up its case (LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Ole Miss), Auburn is almost certainly out of at-large contention. The SEC looks just about locked in as an eight-bid league.

• Sticking in the SEC, Vanderbilt has rocketed from at-large long shot to likely No. 2 seed in a few short weeks. The Commodores improved to 3-0 in Hoover with a 2-1 win against Florida behind six innings of two-hit, shutout ball from Sam Selman. Eight straight wins, capped by back-to-back victories against the Gamecocks and Gators, have helped Vandy surge to No. 20 in the Warren Nolan RPI. Remember when we all thought Vandy had little chance even to finish above .500 overall and gain at-large eligibility? The Commodores are now seven games over .500 (32-25). Simply amazing.

Wake Forest should NOT be in the NCAA tournament unless they win the automatic bid by winning the ACC tourney. Period. They swept a mediocre Clemson team. Other than that, they have ZERO series wins against good teams. They were swept by Boston College.

I have a buddy (a UT-Arlington alum) who is a huge pro sports fan but not so much when it comes to college. He's been to a couple of Regionals with me so I'm trying!! The reason he gave for not being a fan of college sports is the lack of definitive criteria when it comes to who makes the post season. I agree with him on this point.

Aaron, I enjoy your speculation and hearing your reasoning for why teams should be in or out (and a lot of us do the same scrutinizing of resumes), but when it comes down to it, wouldn't it be better if the NCAA had additional specific criteria for making the post season? The only criteria I know of is that you have to finish with an overall record above .500. That is a good and necessary start.

In my opinion, the following 3 additional criteria would help to narrow the bubble, improve the geographic diversity of the field (also known as helping to grow the game!), and take the inconsistency out of the selection process that takes place from year to year.

Here are the 3 additional criteria I think should be adopted:
1. Must finish .500 or better in your league. (Does not include conference tourney)
2. Must make the conference tournament.
3. Team cap per conference–> only 1/2 of a conference plus one can make the NCAA tournament. **If you have 14 teams in your conference, 8 teams max. 11 teams in your conference, 6 teams max.

Using the additional criteria this year, here are the teams from power conferences that would not make the NCAAs that are currently projected as being "in" or "on the bubble"–> Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Auburn, Georgia, and Ole Miss. I'm sorry but these teams would not have a lot to complain about if they didn't get in. Finishing 7th in your conference isn't an unreasonable bar to set.

**The one exception to the "team cap per conference" would be if a team won the automatic bid by winning the season ending conference tournament. So, if a Georgia Tech, Missouri, or Wake Forest wins their conference tourney, they are in. They get that one last chance to prove they are worthy of being in the NCAAs by winning their conference's automatic bid.

Posted by Scott | May 25, 2012 at 10:36 am | Shortcut

Scott, I agree completely that the lack of concrete criteria can be frustrating. It seems like the target moves every year—as the members of the committee change, we never know which factors they will value most heavily (RPI one year, conference standings the next, nonconference strength of schedule the next). But I also don’t believe in capping it to half the number of teams in a conference. Why give a disproportional advantage to teams in weaker conferences? The SEC teams care the most about baseball, so they spend far and away the most money on baseball. They frankly deserve to get more than half of the league in just about every year.

Posted by Aaron Fitt | May 25, 2012 at 12:59 pm | Shortcut

Very good points about the SEC. If only that kind of passion could someday be the norm regarding college baseball! The best fan support in the country bar none.

However, 8 bids is PLENTY for a conference. I don't see how a conference is getting disproportionally disadvantaged by getting 8 bids. In my opinion, there are a lot of conferences out there whose 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place teams could play with the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th place teams from the power conferences. I'd be confident that teams from the Big East, Big Ten, Big West, Missouri Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, and WCC could do so in most years, especially at a neutral site. It is just my opinion and in reality is unknowable. But that works both ways. It is also unknowable that a 7th, 8th, or 9th place team from a "power" conference is automatically better than the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place team from a "mid major" conference. So, why not cap a conference's allotment of bids at 1/2 the conference plus 1? That would be 7 this year for the ACC and SEC. 8 next year for the SEC.

I can just comment from personal experience. Minnesota Gopher baseball doesn't draw at all. The Metrodome is basically like playing in a mausoleum. But, when the Gophers hosted an NCAA Regional in 2000, Siebert Field was packed with fans. Granted, Big Red and Wichita State each brought healthy contingents. I think I even saw a couple token Butler fans! Still, Minnesota fans made up the majority. I'm pretty sure Connecticut drew well at the Regional they hosted (though it wasn't their home stadium) a couple of years ago. Purdue will be packed this year. My point, I believe college baseball could develop more of a following if large portions of the country had more access to the fruits of the NCAA tournament.

I may have already posted this in the past, but, I also feel like it should be MANDATED that the NW, Midwest, and NE have a Regional host every year. Send the last three #1 seeds packing in the interest of growing the sport. This year the only region that would have a "forced" host would be the NE as Oregon and Purdue will certainly host. Send the last #1 seed to St. John's, Stony Brook, or even Army in the interest of growing the sport! I think it would be a great idea.

Anyway, thanks for letting me comment. Appreciate your coverage. I'll try not to write another chapter to "the book" I've been posting on your site today.

Posted by Scott | May 25, 2012 at 2:37 pm | Shortcut

I'll be curious to see where the committee sends Vandy to play in the Regionals. I hope we are sent to Purdue. We owe the Big Ten some payback from 2007 and the Michigan debacle.

Posted by Dan Ryan | May 25, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Shortcut

If Fullerton beats out Arizona for a host spot, will the NCAA send Arizona there as the #2 seed, or could they send Oregon State instead?

Posted by Dave M | May 25, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Shortcut

Dave M — I think if Fullerton does get that last host, it makes a lot of sense for Arizona to head there as the No. 2—both geographically and from a competitive standpoint. Those are basically teams No. 16 and 17, in some order.

Posted by Aaron Fitt | May 25, 2012 at 4:26 pm | Shortcut

Idealistically, the tournament should contain the best 64 teams. The question is how to determine which those are. I would argue that the concept of "conference" clouds the issue. Why should a conference game be considered more important than a nonconference game?
Why not focus on creating an "improved RPI" and simply let that (along with conference champions to allow for the "everyone has a chance" trait that, for instance, the BCS doesn't possess) define the field of 64. What do I mean by "improved?"
There are times when most will agree that a certain team is either highly overrated (or highly underrated) in the RPI. Identify what part of the RPI formula is overcontributing (or undercontributing) and "repair" it.
The bottomline is that if the best eight teams in college baseball all happened to be in the Ivy League (hypothetically speaking), the eighth best team in the country should not be penalized just because the seven best happened to be in the same conference as that team. (Yale could have, again hypothetically speaking, tied for last place in the conference at 9-11, 24-0 out of conference, for a 33-11 overall record.)
So, forget conference – ask which is the best way to rank all teams.

Posted by David | May 25, 2012 at 9:51 pm | Shortcut

But conference games DO matter the most—that’s why teams throw their three best pitchers in the weekend rotation. Conference records are a measure of how teams fare in the games that matter most. If you play in a strong conference, you get plenty of advantages, particularly in the RPI, because teams with strong RPIs play each other and it has a compounding effect. And the stronger conferences also get the advantage of being able to send more teams to regionals. But the flip-side of that is you have to prove you are not one of the weaker teams in your conference in order to deserve an NCAA tournament berth. I’m fine with that trade-off.

Posted by Aaron Fitt | May 25, 2012 at 11:07 pm | Shortcut

The 12th-place team in the SEC, for instance, would undoubtedly dominate the Ivy League. In that respect, all 12 SEC teams are among “the best 64.” But how you compare against your peer institutions (ie, your conference opponents) matters, and it should. The 12th-place team in the SEC does not deserve an NCAA tournament spot—I think we all agree on that, don’t we?

Posted by Aaron Fitt | May 25, 2012 at 11:10 pm | Shortcut