Saturday Mini Stock Report



The following teams clinched automatic bids Saturday:

A-10: Dayton

A-Sun: Belmont

Big South: Coastal Carolina

Big Ten: Purdue

CAA: UNC Wilmington

MAC: Kent State

Missouri Valley: Creighton

Mountain West: New Mexico

Southland: Texas-Arlington

Summit League: Oral Roberts

The wins by Coastal Carolina, Purdue and UNC Wilmington were good for bubble teams, as those teams would have earned at-large spots if they hadn't won automatic bids. Instead, the Big South, Big Ten and CAA will be one-bid leagues. New Mexico's blowout of San Diego State earned the Lobos a trip back to regionals for the third straight year. TCU's exit earlier meant the MWC was already going to be a two-bid league, just as we've had it all week, so no change there. So none of the 10 teams that clinched automatic bids Saturday snapped up additional at-large bids.

Here are the matchups for Sunday's conference tournament title games:

ACC: Georgia Tech vs. Miami

Big 12: Oklahoma vs. Missouri

Big East: St. John's vs. South Florida

Conference USA: Memphis vs. Alabama-Birmingham

Horizon: Valparaiso vs. Illinois-Chicago

MAAC: Canisius vs. Manhattan

Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois vs. Austin Peay State

SEC: Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt

SoCon: Georgia Southern vs. Samford

Sun Belt: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Arkansas State

WAC: Sacramento State vs. Fresno State

We already accounted for the extra bids in the Big East, Conference USA, MVC, SoCon and WAC in Friday's Mini Stock Report. That leaves just two more conferences where at-large bids could disappear Sunday: the Big 12, where a Missouri win would be bad news for bubble teams (because Oklahoma will get an at-large bid, while Mizzou will not); and the Big West (where a Long Beach State win over Fullerton on Sunday would earn the Dirtbags the Big West's automatic bid, making that a two-bid league).

Tulane's loss to Central Florida on Saturday completed a 1-2 showing in the Conference USA tournament, which figures to spell the end of the Green Wave's at-large hopes, because it needed a winning weekend in the C-USA tournament to bolster its case, and it did not deliver. If just one of Missouri or Long Beach State wins Sunday, just remove Tulane from our field of 64. If both teams lose, another team that we chopped Friday re-enters our field of 64 at Tulane's expense—we'll take East Carolina, which salvaged a win in the C-USA tourney in an otherwise meaningless game against UAB on Saturday.

So the other teams we listed as "next on the chopping block" yesterday all should be in the field: Southeastern Louisiana, Texas, College of Charleston, Indiana State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Sam Houston State. If both Mizzou and Long Beach win Sunday, either SELA, Texas or CofC will be cut.

NATIONAL SEED RACE

Stanford was hammered by California, 15-5, to lose the series. That should wrap up a national seed for South Carolina, as the Cardinal needed to win their final series to have a shot.

Final projected national seeds: Florida, UCLA, LSU, Florida State, Baylor, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina.

HOSTING RACE

Both Arizona and Cal State Fullerton lost Saturday, falling to 1-1 in their respective rivalry series. Arizona is now in a three-way tie with UCLA and Oregon (which also lost Saturday at Oregon State) atop the Pac-12. The Titans fell into a tie with Long Beach State atop the Big West, with one game to play. Considering host sites will be announced at 12:30 p.m. PT on Sunday—before the Titans and Wildcats complete their rubber games—Sunday's games do not factor into the decision. The Wildcats play in a better conference, have a stronger RPI and more top 50 wins; they are a strong bet to win the fourth and final West Coast host spot.

Final projected hosts: Florida, UCLA, LSU, Florida State, Baylor, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Stanford, Rice, North Carolina State, Purdue, Virginia, Kentucky, Arizona, Texas A&M.



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19 Comments

It's a shame regional hosts don't factor in Sunday games. A Miami ACC tourney win should give them a hosting spot.

Add one more autobid from Saturday:
Creighton clinched the Mo Valley with a victory over Southern Illinois.  Doesn't affect bubble teams, but that one is official.

At who’s expense, Al? Miami’s big claim to fame is beating North Carolina four times; otherwise, the Hurricanes’ resume is pretty light.

Thanks, Abe, we’ll make that correction.

i doubt oregon gets a national seed after losing to OSU the last two days

Long season, Shane. Oregon’s resume has a lot more on it than just this weekend’s series loss and is as strong as anyone in the Pac-12; you could argue UCLA, but I’d give the Ducks the edge, as Aaron would.

Typo:  Your list of final projected national seeds is nine teams long. I think you meant to omit the last one, Stanford.

Thanks; indeed, Stanford is the team that doesn’t belong on there. Removed them.

Aaron,
WAY to much at stake in regards to HOSTING and SEEDS to not have the final games COUNT!!!!   That needs to be revisited.   Then why play them?
 

You’re right, Todd—I agree. Would be smart to schedule so that championships are decided on Saturday.

yes it is john, i actually thought the loss would effect their RPI more, but it didn't(posted it before updated RPI's came out)

who officially releases the list of national seeds?

Will the regional seeds be announced on one of the ESPN channels, and, if so, which one and what time?
Thanks
Geaux Tigers !

Surely you're kidding that Texas could sneak in. I won't bore you with all the awful numbers, other than a 5-8 mark over the last 13 games, a 3-8 mark over the final 11 Big 12 games, and a 20-21 overall record if games against SWAC and Southland competition are excluded. 

Utah Valley deserves an at-large bid this year. Just look at what they have done and you will be impressed… Nobody in baseball wins their last 40 of 41 games, EVER!

Miami will host if they are winners of the ACC. They have a 12 RPI and a 3 SOS. I know BA does not like Miami but the stats, numbers and other polls say otherwise. Miami hosts with a win today, bank it!!

Hosts will be announced at 3:30 ET on NCAA.com and the ESPN bottom line scroll.

Hosts are live: http://www.baseballamerica.com..... ounced-5/

aaron, do you think oregon loses a national seed and just hosts a regional now that the beavers swept them?


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  • Aaron Fitt is the lead college writer for Baseball America. If you have questions or comments about college baseball you can e-mail him at collegeblog@baseballamerica.com.

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