This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it's time to roll out our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Tuesday here on the College Blog, we'll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.
During this discussion, we will reference the NCAA's official RPI report, which is released every Tuesday and is updated through the weekend's games. We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World, which provides a rough sketch of what teams need to do in order to reach important RPI benchmarks like finishing inside the top 45 (a loose target for an at-large bid). And we'll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI—there is some margin for error with those figures, but they are accurate enough to serve our purposes.
We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first nine weeks of the season:
National Seeds
SECURE TEAMS: Kentucky, Florida State, Baylor, Florida
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Louisiana State, UCLA, North Carolina, Rice
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): South Carolina, Oregon, Cal State Fullerton, Purdue, Arizona, North Carolina State
One change from last week: Rice replaces Oregon as a national seed.
The Ducks actually climbed nine spots in the RPI last week, from No. 30 to No. 21, but their resume took a hit with a home series loss to Washington State. Winning the Pac-12 would cancel out a weaker RPI in the race for a national seed, but the suddenly banged-up Ducks have plenty of competition in the conference, and they trail both UCLA (No. 5) and Stanford (No. 13) in the RPI. For now, we'll keep the Bruins as a national seed out of the Pac-12, but replace the Ducks with Rice, which climbed into the top 10 in the RPI with a series win against East Carolina. South Carolina (No. 7) is a few places higher than Rice in the RPI, but a Conference USA champion based in Texas seems a likelier national seed than a fourth SEC team based in the Southeast. Plus, Rice's 7-4 record against the top 25 stands out against South Carolina's 1-5 mark. The same is true for North Carolina, which is 7-5 against the top 25, offsetting its up-and-down last few weeks. The Tar Heels also have the worst of their schedule behind them and expect to get 2011 Freshman of the Year Colin Moran back in May from a broken hand.
Keep an eye on Purdue as a national seed dark horse. The Boilermakers leapt from No. 16 to No. 8 in the RPI last week, and they have a chance to make a major statement in two weeks with a road series at UCLA. Win that series and continue taking care of business in the Big Ten, and Purdue will be a prime national seed candidate.
Regional Hosts
SECURE TEAMS: The eight national seeds listed above; South Carolina, Oregon, Cal State Fullerton
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Purdue, Stanford, North Carolina State, Arizona, Mississippi
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Central Florida, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Miami
One change from last week: Ole Miss replaces Texas A&M as a host.
The Aggies fell from the thick of the national seed race to outside the hosting picture after a disastrous 0-4 week against Rice and Baylor. That week also knocked them down 11 spots to No. 18 in the RPI. A&M is just 1-6 against the RPI top 25 and 4-6 against the top 50, while Ole Miss is 5-4 against the top 25, 12-8 against the top 50. The Rebels also have two quality series wins against hosting candidates Florida and Arkansas, two series that trump anything on A&M's resume. The Aggies can still host, but they must finish strong, starting with a series win against Texas this weekend.
UCF vaulted from No. 25 to No. 12 in the RPI after sweeping a road series at Tulane, putting the Knights right in the middle of the hosting discussion. But UCF suffers from the same blemish as Texas A&M: a lack of marquee wins. The Knights are 3-5 against the top 25 in the RPI—and they haven't played any games against teams in the 26-50 range, and just two against teams 51-75. By contrast, Purdue is just 3-1 against the top 50, but is 10-4 against teams 51-75. And of course the Boilermakers have the advantage of geographic diversity.
At-large Bids
There are 30 automatic bids awarded to conference champions, and these 16 are safe bets to be one-bid leagues:
America East, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, Colonial Athletic Association, Horizon, Ivy, Metro-Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Mountain West, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Summit, Sun Belt, Southwestern.
We are adding the A-Sun to the list of likely one-bid leagues, regardless of who wins the conference tournament, as Belmont has lost back-to-back weekend series to put its at-large hopes in jeopardy, and no other A-Sun team has an at-large-caliber resume. Stetson is No. 58 in the RPI, putting it in at-large striking distance, but the rest of its resume is sorely lacking, with just an 0-3 record against the top 50, 2-7 against the top 75.
We are adding the Sun Belt to the list of likely one-bid conferences, with the acknowledgement that Florida Atlantic has at least a shot at an at-large bid if it fails to win the conference tournament (but no other Sun Belt team is within shouting distance of an at-large spot). Texas Christian and UNC Wilmington have strong enough RPIs to have realistic shots at earning at-large bids if they fail to win their automatic bids, as well. If TCU and UNCW do not win the MWC and CAA tournaments, respectively, those will be one-bid leagues, which is what we will consider them for this exercise.
Below is a conference-by-conference look at which teams are on track to make the field in potential multi-bid leagues, and which teams are on the wrong side of the bubble through 10 weeks. Here are the changes from last week's field of 64, in a nutshell:
IN: Georgia Tech
OUT: Auburn
Atlantic Coast Conference (9 total bids)
SAFELY IN: Florida State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Miami, Virginia
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Clemson, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Maryland
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Virginia Tech
One change from last week: Georgia Tech moves back into our field of 64, giving the ACC a ninth bid, while the SEC falls back to eight bids. Winning a road series at North Carolina was crucial for the Yellow Jackets, who climbed 13 spots to No. 34 in the RPI. Tech still can't afford to stumble too much in the last four weeks, but it is back on the right side of the bubble for now.
Maryland's chances took a blow when it was swept at home by Clemson this past weekend, but the Terrapins are still No. 35 in the RPI. At 8-9 against the top 25, the Terps have more wins against the top 25 than any team outside the top three teams in the RPI rankings (Florida, Florida State, Kentucky). That resume easily trumps anything other bubble dwellers (such as Washington, Auburn, Tennessee, Michigan State, Liberty, Long Beach State) can point to.
Big 12 (4 bids)
SAFELY IN: Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Oklahoma
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None
No change from last week. Despite playing three games against Alabama State (No. 257 in the RPI) last week, the Sooners find themselves at No. 55 in the RPI this week, still within at-large striking distance.
Big East (1 bid)
SAFELY IN: None
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Louisville
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): South Florida, St. John's, Connecticut
No change from last week. The Cardinals helped their cause with a road series win at South Florida, vaulting them 23 spots to No. 40 in the RPI and bringing them within a game of first place in the Big East. None of the three teams tied for first (USF, St. John's, Connecticut) rank better than 75th in the RPI, leaving them on the outside of the field of 64. But if one of them wins the automatic bid, Louisville looks to be in solid position to earn an at-large.
Big South (1 bid)
SAFELY IN: None
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Coastal Carolina
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Liberty, Radford, Campbell
No change from last week. Liberty's at-large hopes took a blow with a series loss at UNC Asheville.
Big Ten (1 bid)
SAFELY IN: Purdue
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): None
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Michigan State, Ohio State, Nebraska
No change from last week. The Cornhuskers had a chance to make a major move with a home series against Purdue, but the Boilermakers won two of three in Lincoln, keeping Nebraska on the wrong side of the bubble. Ohio State's mysteriously high RPI has begun to drop—the Buckeyes are down to No. 51 this week after losing their second straight series, at Illinois. Michigan State helped itself with a series win against Minnesota, but the Spartans still need a very hot finish to boost their RPI (No. 61) into at-large range.
Big West (1 bid)
SAFELY IN: Cal State Fullerton
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): None
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Long Beach State, Cal Poly, UC Irvine
No change from last week. Cal Poly and UC Irvine both lost another series this weekend—each team's bubble has just about burst. But Long Beach State is a fascinating case. With their series win against UCI this weekend, the Dirtbags have now won five straight series, and they remain tied with Fullerton for first place in the Big West. But they are still 18-19 overall, so if the NCAA tournament started today they would be ineligible. LBSU is still just 1-6 against the top 25 and 2-9 against the top 50, so the automatic bid still looks like its most realistic path to regionals. And we'll continue to project the Titans to win the automatic bid.
Conference USA (3 bids)
SAFELY IN: Rice, Central Florida, East Carolina
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): None
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Tulane, Southern Mississippi
No change from last week. Tulane had a chance to make some hay against UCF, but the Green Wave crashed, getting swept at home. Southern Miss swept Memphis but is still just No. 89 in the RPI, making it a long shot to extend its regionals streak to 10 years, barring a run to the C-USA tournament title.
Independents (1 bid)
SAFELY IN: Dallas Baptist
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): None
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None
No change from last week. Despite losing a road series to Indiana State, DBU remains in good at-large position at No. 33 in the RPI.
Missouri Valley (2 bids)
SAFELY IN: Missouri State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Indiana State
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Illinois State, Wichita State
No change from last week. The Sycamores helped themselves with a big series win against Dallas Baptist this past weekend. They remain inside the top 50 in the RPI, and they'll need to continue playing at a high level to finish there. Home series in the final three weeks against Wichita State and Missouri State will make or break Indiana State's at-large case.
Pacific-12 (7 bids)
SAFELY IN: UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Southern California, California
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Washington, Washington State
No change from last week. Washington (No. 42) remains ahead of USC (No. 50) and Cal (No. 64) in the RPI, but the Huskies have won just two of their last seven series (one of them against No. 153 Cal State Bakersfield). Give UW credit for not getting swept against quality opponents like Arizona, Stanford and Oregon State, but not getting swept isn't enough—at some point, the Huskies need to start winning series. Cal's head-to-head series win against Washington—plus its big series win against Texas—gives it the edge, and its RPI will climb into the top 45 with just an 8-8 finish. An 11-5 finish would land the Golden Bears inside the top 32 at season's end. The Trojans, meanwhile, have the benefit of winning the home series against Cal, and they also get to play Washington at home in two weeks.
Washington State thrust itself back into the at-large discussion with a series win at Oregon this weekend. The Cougars are still just No. 73 in the RPI, but a 12-7 finish will land it inside the top 45, per the Needs Report. For now, the Cougars remain on the outside of the field of 64, but their dangerous offense is capable of bashing a path to regionals.
Southeastern Conference (8 bids)
SAFELY IN: Kentucky, Louisiana State, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Mississippi State
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
One change from last week: Auburn falls out of the field of 64 after getting swept by South Carolina. Series wins against LSU and Mississippi State can no longer buoy Auburn's case, as the Tigers have lost three straight series against Alabama and Vanderbilt (the last-place teams in their respective divisions) and South Carolina. Compare Auburn's case with that of the ninth team in the ACC—Maryland—and it's not close: Maryland has the stronger resume.
Mississippi State boosted its at-large credentials with a huge sweep of fellow bubble dweller Tennessee last week. But there is more work to be done: MSU is still just 2-8 against the top 25, 2-10 against the top 50. A home series against Ole Miss this weekend is big.
Southern Conference (3 bids)
SAFELY IN: College of Charleston, Appalachian State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Elon
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Western Carolina, Georgia Southern
No change from last week. CofC and ASU had good weeks and find themselves in strong RPI range at No. 32 and No. 30, respectively. Put them both in the secure category. Elon owns series wins over both of them, but the Phoenix have stumbled of late, losing road sets to Furman and Wofford over the last three weeks. We'll leave Elon in the field, but its footing has become more precarious.
Southland Conference (3 bids)
SAFELY IN: Sam Houston State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Southeastern Louisiana, Texas-Arlington
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Texas State
No change from last week. Southeastern's 8-0 record against the top 50 stands out amongst other bubble teams, and UTA's 5-7 mark is respectable. Both teams took care of business this past week, as the Lions won a road series at UTSA while the Mavericks swept Northwestern State.
West Coast Conference (3 bids)
SAFELY IN: San Diego, Gonzaga
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Pepperdine
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Portland, Brigham Young
No change from last week. Gonzaga's hosting hopes took a big hit when it was swept at San Francisco this weekend, but the Zags remain 25th in the RPI, in no danger of falling out of at-large territory. Pepperdine is also inside the top 30 after winning a road series at Santa Clara.
Western Athletic Conference (1 bid)
SAFELY IN: New Mexico State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): None
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Nevada, Hawaii
No change from last week. The Aggies swept last-place Louisiana Tech and remain in the top 20 of the RPI. This weekend, they'll travel to Baylor for two games, giving them an opportunity to inject some real life into their chances of earning a No. 1 seed in a regional—though they lack the facilities to host.
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I am surprised that out of all outlets you have the least faith in UCF. PerfectGame and ESPN project UCF as a host. The coaches poll puts UCF at 7th, NCBWA 8th, and CBN 11th, NCAARPI 12th.
Posted by Adam | April 25, 2012 at 12:39 am | ShortcutThree things are clear:
#1 All that matters is winning regardless of circumstances. UCF will have to go through miami and florida or florida state to reach omaha. Fair? Whats the difference… win. No excuses.
#2 It's easy to select a team and say they are this or that. There are 50 reasons to backup that they are good and 2 reasons to say they are not. If you decide they are "worthy", you key on a few of the 50 reasons and support the claim. If you decide they are not good enough, you find the 2 stats to support the claim they are not. Bunch of bull imo.
#3 Why have polls in college baseball? Why rate a team 14th and say they don't host? The poll is meaningless. 16 hosts, 1-16 should host, right? Makes sense. 1-8 should be national seeds. Otherwise what is all this poll bs other than fluff.. Does that sound so crazy? Guess you can blame it on the selection committee, but.. im asking them too.
[...] 500 Baseball America stock report; Big 12 (4 bids) SAFELY IN: Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Oklahoma ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None No change from last week. Despite playing three games against Alabama State (No. 257 in the RPI) last week, the Sooners find themselves at No. 55 in the RPI this week, still within at-large striking distance. Baseball America | Blog | Baseball America College Blog | Stock Report: Week 10 [...]
Posted by Regional Projections (April 24, 2012) | April 25, 2012 at 7:13 am | ShortcutSeems to me that VT has a better argument for a bid right now than Mississippi State.
2 road wins and 2 wins over the top 50 should never get a team in the NCAA tournament.
Posted by Chris Luper | April 25, 2012 at 9:54 am | ShortcutHave to say something about these projections. Drives me crazy that year after year the same thing occurs. It is like clockwork. The RPI bias towards the power conferences continually hurts the growth of college baseball. I realize the RPI is being tweaked next season and welcome the greater weight to road victories. Personally think even more weight should be given to road wins in the future. Nonetheless, 9 teams from the ACC?!! Southern California? Mississippi State? Come on. What have these power conference bubble teams done other than being fortunate enough to be playing in a conference that typically has some very good teams at the top? Many of the "quality wins" from these power conference bubble teams are against other power conference bubble teams. Someone has to win the game when two teams play! Sure the power conference bubble teams win an occasional game against the elite teams in their conference. It is baseball. Something called Francis Marion beat 2 time defending National Champion South Carolina for crying out loud. Does anyone actually believe that if you plugged in a good Mid Major school into one of these conferences that they would go 0-16 or something?
Posted by Scott | April 25, 2012 at 11:50 am | ShortcutExamples of the RPI being a joke:
Kent St. (24-16 overall; 12-3 conference; "Boyd's RPI" 139; 4 wins (Georgia Tech; 2 @ New Mexico St.; @ Pepperdine) against Stock Report 10 tourney teams that aren't in their conference. Played 10 home games so far this season!
Maryland (26-17; 7-14; "Boyd's RPI" 33; 4 wins (2 @ UCLA; Purdue; East Carolina) against Stock Report 10 tourney teams that aren't in their conference.
If these two played a three game series I'd take Kent State (with Starn!) in a heartbeat yet they are 100+ lower according to the RPI.
Purdue is "Bubble In" regarding hosting. Are they supposed to go undefeated to guarantee themselves a host?!! They have played 8 home games this year yet are 32-6.
Lastly, I'm a Minnesota Gopher fan and follow the Big Ten. Purdue was plenty good last year, along with fellow non tourney teams Minnesota and Michigan St., yet none of these teams received a bid. Good teams from the mid majors are being left at home in exchange for mediocre power conference teams every year and it is a joke. It hurts the growth of the sport in other parts of the country.
Great post, Scott. I understand your frustration, and I share your frustration with the committee’s reliance on the RPI. I have spent far too much energy railing about that topic, however. For now, we know the committee uses the RPI heavily, so I will continue trying to forecast how the field of 64 will look with ample consideration given to the RPI realities.
Posted by Aaron Fitt | April 25, 2012 at 2:41 pm | ShortcutGreat, informative post Scott. Hope you sent a copy of that to the members of the Division I baseball committee.
Posted by John Manuel | April 25, 2012 at 2:55 pm | ShortcutThanks for the kind words about my post. Still trying to figure out who is on the baseball committee but I did forward my post to #14, Coach Anderson.
Posted by Scott | April 25, 2012 at 7:27 pm | ShortcutThe ACC is ranked high in boyd’s ISR ratings too. Maryland is 10th in the ACC and won a series at UCLA, gave Purdue one of their few losses and beat ECU on the road and took 2 of 3 against State.
That’s pretty good baseball team. Or else they have been real lucky beating teams that few others have.
Posted by Chris Luper | April 25, 2012 at 10:41 pm | ShortcutI do agree that Maryland’s resume is pretty good — that is a very nice collection of quality wins. Maryland’s pitching is pretty darn good, too.
Posted by Aaron Fitt | April 26, 2012 at 2:01 am | Shortcut[...] Both Baseball America and Perfect Game are high on the Purdue Boilermakers when it comes to the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Perfect Game continues to project Purdue as a National seed, while Baseball America’s most recent projection has the Boilermakers close: [...]
Posted by College Baseball 2012: Purdue Projected As National Seed | South Bend IN DIRECTV Service | April 26, 2012 at 2:52 am | ShortcutBelieve me, I would love to see Maryland make the tournament. I don't remember them ever really being a factor in college baseball and think it would fun to see them in there. They have some impressive wins, no doubt. However, at some point you have to use common sense. 7-14 in their conference should not be rewarded with an NCAA bid. Sorry. Why should they go in place of a Kent State other than their RPI or ISR? Isn't it a wiser decision to go with the 1st place team of a conference with similar non conference wins over the 10th place team of a power conference because of their RPI?
Posted by Scott | April 26, 2012 at 11:54 am | ShortcutPretend the Southland was a power conference and thus all the teams in it had inflated RPIs. Should Lamar receive a bid? 8-13 in the Southland. However, 2 wins @ Baylor, 1 win @ Rice, 2 wins over SE Louisiana, 1 win over Sam Houston St., and 1 win over UTA. Aaron has all 5 of those teams in the tournament as of 'Stock Report 10'. Of course Lamar shouldn't get an invite but you have to admit those are some pretty good wins. Just trying to make a point.
Scott,
Posted by Ben | April 28, 2012 at 11:31 am | ShortcutI share your pain and have made plenty of these comparisons before. Based on information I have received from many collegiate coaches in the Northwest, which also has witnessed limited post-season hosting opportunities (PAC-12, West Coast, Big West), the hosting picture has much to do with the gate that can be earned, especially given the fact that much of college baseball remains at non-revenue producing status.
I believe, as many others do within the sport, that the RPI is skewed and it supports the southern region teams because college baseball is a hot-bed in this part of the country. Fair or unfair, this is simply the way things are.
The post season has to make money and the power conference teams, especially those in the Southern-Sunshine Regions always receive the benefit of the RPI.
Having all the PAC-12 powers listed at the bottom of the Top-10 is a prime example. The SEC and ACC teams will always dominate the hosting sites, as well as the Top-10 and RPI Rankings.
Most of Stanfords losses are in conference, the PAC-12 has dominated the SEC this year, yet many of these teams are ranked higher than the PAC-12 teams or many other quality West Coast or Northern Tier teams.
How can Florida State be ranked ahead of Baylor? When is the last time a team has gone 18-0 in a power conference. Mike Martin's teams ( and I mean no disrespect here because I am a Mike Martin fan) have notoriously under achieved in the post season, especially at Omaha.
This is just one example of the of the relationship between sunshine, RPI, national rankings and the gate that can be earned.
The RPI is the baseball version of the BCS profiles in College Football. It is all a bunch of hogwash where you can hide your true intentions with a formula that few understand or can make any sense of. In this manner, you can shrug your shoulders and claim plausible deniability in an effort to deregulate and control the agenda.