This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so every Tuesday here on the College Blog, we examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the weekend. Rather than get bogged down in the jigsaw puzzle that is a full field of 64 projection, we're not going to worry about which regionals teams get sent to. We're just looking at who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it's also not intended to show what the field would look like if the season ended today. We're still looking ahead.
During this discussion, we will reference the pseudo Ratings Percentage Index figures at boydsworld.com, which are very close to the NCAA's official RPI rankings (which are released here on Tuesday afternoons). We'll also reference the useful RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World. And we'll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI—there is some margin for error with those figures, but they are accurate enough to serve our purposes.
We'll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let's start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first eight weeks of the season:
NATIONAL SEEDS
SECURE TEAMS: Virginia, South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Oregon State, Texas A&M, Arizona State, North Carolina
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Cal State Fullerton, Texas, Georgia Tech, Florida State
One change from last week: Oregon State replaces Cal State Fullerton as a second national seed on the West Coast. The Titans did nothing to hurt their position last week, going 4-0 and climbing to No. 9 in the RPI. But they simply got passed on the pecking order by the Beavers, who swept a series at Stanford to improve to 8-1 in the Pac-10, good enough for first place. Oregon State is 10th in the RPI, but it plays in a better conference than Fullerton and has a 6-2 record against the top 25 in the RPI and a 16-4 mark against the top 100, compared with Fullerton's 1-3 mark against the top 25 and 13-9 mark against the top 100.
North Carolina slides from the "secure" category to the bubble after getting swept at North Carolina State, but the Tar Heels still get the nod over the Titans, Georgia Tech and Florida State based on a robust RPI (No. 5), a 7-1 record against the top 25 and a road series win at FSU. UNC also has the easiest path to a top-eight RPI at the end of the year; according to the RPI Needs Report, UNC just needs to go 10-8 to finish in the top eight.
REGIONAL HOSTS
SECURE TEAMS: The 12 teams listed in the national seeds discussion above
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Southern Mississippi, Rice, Fresno State, Arkansas
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Stetson, Oklahoma State
No change from last week. We are adjusting a small adjustment, moving Southern Miss onto the bubble along with Rice, Fresno State and Arkansas, all of whom had strong weekends to firm up their positions a bit. The Golden Eagles, meanwhile, actually fell to No. 15 in the RPI after playing three games against New Orleans (No. 276), but at least USM swept the series.
We're trimming our list of bubble candidates this week, leaving only Stetson and Oklahoma State, who seem to have the best shots at hosting. Stetson's 13-2 record against the Top 100 is its strongest asset, though its RPI is unlikely to stay as high as it is (No. 21) down the stretch. And the Cowboys moved past Oklahoma and Texas Christian in the hosting hierarchy after winning two of three against the Sooners. OSU has won series against preseason Big 12 favorites Texas and Oklahoma in the last four weeks.
AT-LARGE BIDS
There are 30 automatic bids awarded to conference champions, and these 19 are safe bets to be one-bid leagues:
America East, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big South, Big Ten, Colonial Athletic Association, Horizon, Ivy, Metro-Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Summit, Southwestern, Western Athletic.
Changes: We've added the Big East to the list of one-bid leagues after Louisville got swept by St. John's, dropping the Cardinals to No. 82 in the RPI. They no longer have a plausible path to an at-large bid. The WAC also becomes a one-bid league after San Jose State lost three of four games at New Mexico State, but if Fresno State fails to win the automatic bid, it will be a lock for an at-large bid. TCU is also a lock for an at-large bid if it fails to win the MWC tournament. Creighton (No. 38 in the RPI) and Coastal Carolina (No. 52, up from No. 74 a week ago) have shots at at-large bids if they fail to capture automatic bids, but their RPI situations make that an uphill battle. But for this exercise, let's assume all 17 of those leagues receive one bid.
Below is a conference-by-conference look at which teams are on track to make the field in potential multi-bid leagues, and which teams are on the wrong side of the bubble through eight weeks. Here are the changes from last week's field of 64 projection, in a nutshell:
IN: North Carolina State, Mississippi, Florida Atlantic, Jacksonville
OUT: Louisville, Alabama-Birmingham, East Tennessee State, Georgia Southern
Atlantic Coast Conference (7 total bids)
SAFELY IN: Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Clemson
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): North Carolina State
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None
The Wolfpack moves back into our field of 64 after sweeping North Carolina. N.C. State still has work to do—it's still just 21-16 (8-10 in the ACC)—but an 8-11 finish would still land it in the top 45 of the RPI, and now it owns two quality series wins (Clemson was the other).
Atlantic Sun (2 bids)
SAFELY IN: Stetson
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Jacksonville
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): East Tennessee State
Jacksonville replaces ETSU after the Buccaneers were swept at Belmont. East Tennessee State still owns an inexplicably high RPI (No. 30), but has just two wins against the top 50, and it lost the head-to-head series against the Dolphins, who have passed ETSU to move into second place in the A-Sun (13-5).
Big 12 (5 bids)
SAFELY IN: Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Baylor
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Texas Tech, Nebraska
No change from last week. Baylor is on very thin ice at 20-17 overall and 6-9 in the conference, but the Bears are strong in the RPI (27), have a solid 5-5 mark against the top 25 and a 10-7 mark against the top 100. They have avoided getting swept despite losing four of their first five conference series. Texas Tech and Nebraska, by contrast, are a combined 4-11 against the top 25.
Big West (3 bids)
SAFELY IN: Cal State Fullerton
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): UC Irvine, Long Beach State
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None
No change from last week, though Long Beach (No. 64 in the RPI) has little margin for error. But the needs report says a 15-7 finish gets the Dirtbags into the top 45.
Conference USA (4 bids)
SAFELY IN: Southern Miss, Rice, East Carolina
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Central Florida
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Memphis, Alabama-Birmingham, Tulane, Houston
UAB drops back out of the field after getting swept by Memphis and sinking to No. 86 in the RPI. Memphis (No. 75) and Houston (just 19-19 overall) are part of the four-way tie atop the C-USA standings, but both have lots of work to do to get to the right side of the bubble. UCF is in a precarious spot after losing its third straight conference series to fall to 4-8 in C-USA, but it is in much better shape in the RPI, and a 10-10 finish would land it in the top 45. The Knights stay in for now, by a thread. ECU firmed up its position with a series win against UCF, and the Pirates (No. 21) are in very good RPI shape.
Independents (1 bid)
SAFELY IN: None
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Cal State Bakersfield
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None
No change from last week for the Roadrunners, who swept a pair of games at UC Davis.
Pacific-10 (6 bids)
SAFELY IN: Oregon State, Arizona State, California, Arizona, UCLA, Stanford
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): None
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Washington State
No change from last week.
Southeastern Conference (10 bids)
SAFELY IN: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Louisiana State
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None.
Mississippi moves into our field as the 10th team in the SEC after sweeping Kentucky to move into a three-way tie for first place in the SEC West. LSU has lost four of its first five conference series to plummet to last place in the West at 4-11, and the Tigers remain in our field simply because there are not enough other bubble candidates with better records. For all its struggles, LSU is still 31st in the RPI, and an 11-8 finish can land it in the top 32 at the end of the year. Its 12-12 record against the top 100 also compares favorably with most other bubble dwellers. So can the SEC become the first conference to send 10 teams to regionals? It's a real possibility this year, with so few worthy at-large teams.
Southern Conference (1 bid)
SAFELY IN: Elon
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): None
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Georgia Southern, Samford, College of Charleston
As Elon strengthens its hold on the SoCon (the Phoenix is 14-4 after taking a series from CofC), the league is looking more and more like a one-bid league. No other team in the league has an RPI better than No. 69. Georgia Southern drops out of our field after a 2-2 week, due to an RPI that has fallen to No. 85. The Eagles need a 17-1 finish to land in the top 45—a tall order.
Southland Conference (2 bids)
SAFELY IN: Texas State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Southeastern Louisiana
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None
No change from last week, but the Lions are on uneasy ground after losing a series to Texas State. For now, we'll leave Southeastern in the field thanks to a solid RPI (45) and a 13-7 mark against the top 100.
Sun Belt Conference (3 bids)
SAFELY IN: Troy
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Florida International, Louisiana-Lafayette
Florida Atlantic's six-game winning streak has helped it climb to No. 50 in the RPI and a tie with Western Kentucky for second place in the Sun Belt at 10-5. An 11-7 finish lands the Owls in the top 45 in the RPI, and they are certainly talented enough to do better than that down the stretch. The Owls are in, for now.
West Coast Conference (1 bid)
SAFELY IN: None
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Gonzaga
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Loyola Marymount
No change from last week. Gonzaga strengthened its position with a road series win at LMU, but with an RPI of 48th and the bulk of the RPI-draining WCC schedule still ahead, it remains on the at-large bubble.
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Hey Aaron -
Posted by Doug | April 19, 2011 at 2:51 pm | ShortcutIsn't Arizona State banned from the 2011 postseason?
-Doug
ASU’s appeal is scheduled for 2 weeks before selection day. Until that appeal is denied, the Sun Devils are eligible. It may not be ruled upon until after selection day — in which case, they would be eligible for this postseason, and would have to miss the 2012 postseason if they lose the appeal.
Posted by Aaron Fitt | April 19, 2011 at 9:39 pm | Shortcut[...] Aaron Fitt of Baseball America has WKU in and the University of Louisville out of his latest NCAA tournament projection. [...]
Posted by Hefler named OVC pitcher of week; Wallace named SAL player of week; WKU in, UofL out of latest NCAA projection « BluGrass Baseball | April 20, 2011 at 9:01 am | ShortcutThe college baseball RPI has a geography problem. Essentially, the southern schools get a month of home games (mostly wins) to start the season; then later, their mid-week games are against other nearby southern schools that have inflated RPIs. These mid-week games are the RPI advantage that southern schools enjoy over the mid-west & north-east schools (I won't challenge the southern schools deserved RPI advantage in conference games). Good teams like Indiana and Kent State can't pick up any RPI ground mid-week playing triple digit RPI teams while mediocre teams like Alabama and Baylor get to play double digit RPI teams mid-week and therefore have an inflated RPI. I'm a fan of the RPI and it's objectivity, but for baseball more than basketball, you need to consider the geography problem.
Posted by Steve | April 20, 2011 at 10:00 am | ShortcutAre you serious about Kent State and Indiana? Let them play Stetson, UCF, FAU…Don't play RPI when the Big Ten is abysmal. The MAC is slightly better.
Posted by Dude | April 21, 2011 at 10:48 am | ShortcutI'm a huge college baseball fan from Big Ten country. Couldn't agree with you more Steve. If the RPI is not changed, college baseball's "power conferences" will continue to accumulate power and dominate Regional and Super Regional hosting as well as representation in the CWS. College baseball is on its way to becoming a regional sport (like College Hockey) quicker than anyone could imagine. Vermont and Northern Iowa is one thing, but Cal cancelling their program before it was brought back from the dead should be a huge red flag to the state of college baseball. I think it is safe to say that there is a very large number of administrations that are considering dropping college baseball. Why should they keep the non revenue sport with the stacking of the deck that exists? You'll likely never get a #1 seed or host a regional. Also, you are very unlikely to get an at large bid because of your RPI. There is absolutely no way the RPI should not reward teams that play on the road and also teams that win on the road during non conference games. Take a look at this quick research I did. These are games that were played before conference games began for each respective team from each respective conference. HOME GAMES PLAYED–>ACC (100); Big 12 (127); Pac 10 (106); SEC (158); and Big 10 (24!!!). ROAD/NEUTRAL GAMES PLAYED–>ACC (52); Big 12(54); Pac 10 (93); SEC (47); and Big 10 (184!!!). Aaron has the SEC getting 10 teams in the field as of today, mainly based on RPI. That is beyond preposterous. For him to say they deserve 10 bids means they must be that much better, right. Well, take a look at how the SEC, along with the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 10 do compared to the Big 10 when they play on the road or at a neutral location. Here is how it breaks down: ACC–> 27 wins, 25 losses; Big 12–> 29-25; Pac 10–> 43-50; SEC–> 27-20; and Big 10–> 95-89!!! Their RPI's are annually inflated due to how many games they get to play at home to start the season enabling them to pump that RPI up and set the RPI table for the year once conference play starts. Michigan State, Indiana, or Connecticut could go undefeated the rest of the season and none of them would receive a #1 seed. That is a farcical system that will continue to hinder the sport in the long term.
Posted by Scott | April 22, 2011 at 12:42 pm | ShortcutScott, I do not actually think the SEC deserves 10 bids, just that it has a chance to get 10 bids, because there is a real lack of teams out there with at-large caliber resumes—at least, as long as the committee is putting the kind of emphasis on RPI that it does. I agree with you: I don’t think the RPI is a fair to cold-weather teams, and I think the committee should not lean so heavily upon it as a crutch. I’ve written that plenty of times—but for now, the RPI is a major factor in the committee’s deliberations, so I can’t simply ignore it when making projections. Just wanted to clarify that.
Posted by Aaron Fitt | April 23, 2011 at 12:15 pm | Shortcut