Comments on: Stock Report: Week 11

By: John Manuel

John Manuel — Fri, 07 May 2010 15:59:11 +0000

Aaron’s getting more draft calls returned, so I’ll hop in; also I wrote the WCU part. Your points are valid. While it’s plausible for the Catamounts to go 7-2 or 8-1 against that schedule, that’s really what they have to do, and their RPI probably is going to stay in the 50-60 range regardless. It would take that kind of finish to be in the conversation, and you’re right, that UNC Greensboro series loss is probably a killer. Elon is much more likely, and frankly is the better team. Both teams would be helped by strong finishes, whether or not it pushes them into the top 45-50 RPI or not. But there just aren’t that many worthy teams out there, either. A strong finish by App State is more likely to land the Mountaineers in than the other two teams. If I had to rank the three teams, it would go Elon, App State, Western right now. Thanks for your interest.

By: RSN

RSN — Fri, 07 May 2010 00:05:24 +0000

How many teams do you think will end up making it from SOCON?? Citadel and CoC right now are only ones with real good shot id say. WCU has some pretty darn good wins(2-UNCC, Clemson, Tennessee, won CoC series, won GSU series) but just lost 2 of 3 at home to UNCG that killed them. They are in 7th in SOCON and no mid-major has finished below 3rd and gotten atlarge and dont see them getting above 7th. App St has great record at 31-8-1 but has not played a single opponent in RPI top 100 out of conference and is 6th in SOCON.. Elon has some very good wins(2-Clemson, 2-Liberty, UNC, WCU series) but not so good RPI and 5th in SOCON. GSU is 3d in SOCON but is just 2-10 vs top 100 teams. All those teams have decent RPIs with App(41), GSU(54) and WCU(55) better than Elons(61) and Samford(64) You mention that if WCU can take care of Furman, Samford and Davidson in SOCON they still may have chance???? Please explain do you think the committee could actually take a team from "mid-major" that did not finish in top 3?? Also what if App St does win Elon and CoC series? I Still say no way Forgot to answer my questions Aaron???

By: Aaron Fitt

Aaron Fitt — Thu, 06 May 2010 14:42:11 +0000

Michigan’s got a shot, Matt, but its RPI is probably just on the wrong side of the bubble (No. 56), and the remaining schedule offers no real opportunities to boost that RPI. Even if the Wolverines are deserving of an at-large spot, the committee probably won’t give them one unless they can get that RPI into the 40s, which means they’ll basically need to go 12-0 down the stretch. No other Big Ten team is even close to having a good enough RPI to get an at-large.

By: Matt W

Matt W — Thu, 06 May 2010 14:20:15 +0000

Am I missing something or are there NO big 10 teams that are projected to be in the field other than the Conference Champion? I would think that even if a 29-16 Michigan team would make it to a regional even if they didn't win the conference championship. I am bias on this topic but just curious to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

By: Brian

Brian — Thu, 06 May 2010 13:48:53 +0000

Lot of baseball left. The last 3 weeks weigh so much on the committee's minds every year. If UCLA continues to flounder the next 3 weeks no one will remember their 22-0 start and they'll be a 2 seed in a stacked regional. If LSU wins 7 out of 10 games down the stretch, they'll still host. Rice will host, too, but maybe as a 2 seed. They host almost every year, do an incredible job, and draw huge numbers. When it gets down to the nuts and bolts on 31 May, they will go with old faithful and put regional sites at the home of a proven performer. And they'll stick in UNC over Portland because they know the alumni will show up in force. Sorry small schools and small conferences – that's just the way it is.

By: Scott

Scott — Wed, 05 May 2010 19:38:50 +0000

This is the original Scott posting a follow up. First of all, I came on a little too strong in my original comments so I want to apologize to you Aaron for that. I do love that BA covers college baseball and I don't mean to bite the hand that feeds me. I'm a Minnesota Gopher fan so don't think I wasn't elated when you did a write up on Rosin and Kvasnicka! It is just very frustrating to think that the Portlands and Pacifics are going to be sitting at home most likely when it is all said and done. These teams are having historic seasons for their programs and for those kids to miss out on the NCAA experience to teams that have had years like North Carolina and Tennessee is just wrong. It just sends the wrong message to those programs and all of the others in similar situations. What incentive to they have to care if they don't even get rewarded for remarkable seasons? I know if I was an AD I would think twice about putting more into a program when the deck is so stacked against it. Give the SEC and ACC (and Big 12 for that matter) their 2, 3, and 4 regional hosts. They have the best fans in the sport and usually have a lot of the best teams. But, you just cannot have the back end of those conferences--> Tennessee, North Carolina, and the other teams benefitting from this RPI system that are having such mediocre seasons, taking bids from teams like Portland and Pacific. They have done nothing above and beyond what Portland and Pacific have done except for the fact that they play in the ACC and SEC and benefit incredibly RPI wise because of that. In such a situation you just have to throw away the RPI, and do the right thing. Obviously it is my opinion that it is the right thing but I think quite a few people may agree with me. I will stick to Indiana St., Fresno St., and St. John's still deserving the nod over teams like Tennessee and North Carolina. Their resumes are comparable, in my opinion, and it expands the geographic footprint of the tournament. However, I will have to concede Michigan State's case is beginning to look pretty weak. Thanks again for covering the sport of college baseball. Don't sleep on the Gophers. They just may put it together yet this year!

By: RSN

RSN — Wed, 05 May 2010 17:48:52 +0000

By: Brian

Brian — Wed, 05 May 2010 17:21:17 +0000

Aaron,
Its nice to see Coastal as a projected national seed, but since they aren't "secure" yet, what would have to happen to either lock them in or knock them out of a top 8 seed?
Thanks.

By: ray villwock

ray villwock — Wed, 05 May 2010 16:35:34 +0000

Doesn't anybody take into account the head to head play of the ACC vs. the SEC? It's not close, at all…the ACC has a huge lead in wins over the SEC. While some, like FSU's 3-1 lead over Florida, were midweek games and can be discounted somewhat, others were weekend series. Yet the SEC gets all the love from the polls…apparently because the RPI has every SEC team rated high so every win against an SEC team is worth more than other wins. I believe that most of the "experts" aren't aware of the huge discrepancy in wins when the ACC plays the SEC.

By: Aaron Fitt

Aaron Fitt — Wed, 05 May 2010 15:14:55 +0000

Scott and Scott, I agree with both of you guys. I think the RPI is seriously flawed, and I don’t think it rewards many deserving teams. But the fact of the matter is the committee relies upon it heavily, so pretending like it’s not a factor would make for a very flawed projection. NC State does have a considerably better resume than UNC, but there is almost no way NC State gets an at-large bid with its RPI. That might not be fair, but that’s just the way it is, until the committee changes the way it does things. Tennessee does not have a regional resume either, but Pacific, Portland, Indiana State, etc. will not get at-large bids with their RPIs. I’m not saying it’s fair or right, but I’ve got to make projections within the framework of the system that the committee uses. The committee uses the RPI as a crutch, and nothing I write is going to change that. That said… I wouldn’t go holding up Michigan State and Fresno State as examples of teams that are getting shafted. The Spartans were just swept by Penn State and are now just 7-8 in the Big Ten, which is hardly a great conference this year. And Fresno State is 4.5 games behind New Mexico State in the WAC—again, not a great league. Indiana State is 8-6 in the MVC. If you’re going to scream about injustice, I’d recommend you find more worthy champions.

By: Scott

Scott — Wed, 05 May 2010 14:10:14 +0000

How would you see NC State being behind UNC at this point. UNC is in serious jeopardy of making the ACC conference tourney, needing to sweep Wake Forest just to catch up to State's current record and pray that it gets more wins against Virginia and Virginia Tech (two top 20 teams) than NC State gets against FSU and Duke (1 top 20 and another far from). Add that to the fact that NC State has series wins against GT and UVA, while UNC hangs its hat on Clemson and NC State, I just can't see UNC being more worthy right now other than the fact that they have one stud pitcher and success the previous years.

By: Scott

Scott — Wed, 05 May 2010 07:16:54 +0000

North Carolina and Tennessee? That would be a shame if they got in. Do you guys honestly think the RPI system is a legit system use? It is ludicrous. Please tell me why you feel a ratings system that spits out these ratings (Boyd's as of 5/4) is something worthy of going by: Florida(#2); Arkansas(7); South Carolina(14); Auburn(15); Ole Miss(17); LSU(19); Alabama(20); Vanderbilt(21); Kentucky(28); Tennessee(45); Mississippi St.(54); and 13-30 Georgia(97). 9 SEC teams in the top 28 of RPI!! The ACC has 7 teams in the top 29. Clemson(13) and North Carolina(29) is insane. You guys should be ashamed of yourselves to actually act like this is a legitimate way to place teams in the field. How about leaving North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, and Clemson home and picking 4 teams from this group of teams that are having just as good or better seasons: Pacific, Portland, Indiana St., Michigan St., Fresno St., and St. John's. I know a fraction of what you guys know concerning college baseball but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how preposterous the RPI system is. I actually worry about the future of the sport if this type of system is considered legitimate and on the up and up.