Baseball America | Blog | Baseball America College Blog | Final Projection: National Seeds And Hosts

I'll unveil a final field of 64 projection after the regional hosts are announced Sunday afternoon. With Saturday's action completed, here is my final prediction for national seeds and hosts (note: this is what I think the committee will do, not necessarily what I think it should do). We'll reference WarrenNolan.com's Ratings Percentage Index rankings, updated through Saturday's action.

National seeds:

1. Arizona State
2. Virginia
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Coastal Carolina
6. UCLA
7. Louisville
8. Georgia Tech

The top five national seeds are set in stone, in some order. The next three are less certain, but UCLA and Louisville both have top-eight RPIs and gaudy overall records, and those factors will weigh heavily with the committee. Georgia Tech sneaks into the last national seed thanks to a stronger RPI (No. 10) than Cal State Fullerton (No. 14), Auburn (15), South Carolina (18) or Texas Christian (19). Tech's 24-10 record against the top 100 is also the strongest of that group. Out west, Fullerton went 2-0 against UCLA this season, but both those wins came in midweek play, which does not have as much weight as weekend series. And UCLA has 14 wins against the top 50 compared to Fullerton's nine, a product of playing in a vastly superior conference.

Texas Christian, the only team in the nation that did not lose a weekend series all year, has a strong case to be a national seed over Georgia Tech after adding a Mountain West tournament championship to its regular-season title. But the committee loves the Ratings Percentage Index, so TCU will not earn a national seed with a No. 19 ranking in the RPI. Those two losses against Air Force are also certain to haunt the Frogs; the rest of the top 20 teams in the RPI have a combined one loss against teams outside the top 200.

Other hosts:

• South Carolina
• Auburn
• Texas Christian
• Cal State Fullerton
• Miami
• Oklahoma
• Arkansas
• Connecticut

Connecticut secured a hosting spot with its run to the Big East title game, improving its overall record to 47-13. An RPI of 22nd means UConn will host as a No. 2 seed; teams like Florida State, Vanderbilt and Clemson played stronger schedules, have better RPIs and more drawing power, but geographic diversity does matter to the committee—that's why Michigan hosted as a No. 2 seed in 2008, for instance.

We'll send Florida State to Norwich, Conn., as the No. 1 seed. Assuming UConn is safe as a host, that leaves FSU, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Clemson and Vandy competing for the last two hosting spots. Oklahoma finished very strong down the stretch, and keeping in mind the pro-Big 12 bend of the committee's field a year ago, it's hard to imagine the Sooners being sent on the road. Florida State, Vanderbilt and Clemson have very similar resumes to each other, but the Seminoles helped themselves more in their conference tournament, so let's take the Commodores and Tigers off the board. Arkansas also had a poor showing in its conference tournament, but the Hogs won a critical series at Vanderbilt last weekend, giving them the tie-breaker.

That leaves Arkansas and Florida State vying for one spot. The Hogs finished the season with a whimper, dropping 10 of their last 15 games, including an 0-2 showing in the SEC tournament. Neither team has a geographic advantage over the other; Arkansas is in the same region as Oklahoma, but Florida State is in the same region as Auburn, Georgia Tech and the two other Sunshine State hosts. Each team would be the fourth host in its respective conference, and the committee has simply been kinder to the SEC than it has to the ACC (see yesterday's post about the four ACC teams that finished in the top 10 in the RPI getting sent on the road in the last five years). Maybe Florida State is more deserving of a host spot because it did not finish the season as cold as Arkansas (the Seminoles rebounded from their lone hiccup at Clemson last weekend with a run to the ACC title game), but if we're trying to predict what the committee will do, the smart money is on the SEC team getting the benefit of the doubt and the ACC team packing its bags, especially since the SEC is the top-rated RPI conference and the ACC is No. 3.

Florida State deserves the nod over Arkansas because Florida State is in the ACC final, beat the #3 team in country on a neutral field by 7, Beat Florida 3 or 4 times, and undefeated the whole season on Sunday.

Posted by Nate | May 30, 2010 at 8:52 am | Shortcut

The ACC tournament format is too prone to tiebreakers. With four teams winding up with identical 2-1 records in the tourney, both teams in today’s championship game backed in through tiebreakers.
That will happen consistently, except when someone manages to go 3-0 (like the Cavs last year).
The format should be changed.
(Are other conference tournaments subject to the same weakness?)

Posted by Dave | May 30, 2010 at 9:20 am | Shortcut

You still think Georgia Tech will get the national seed after losing to Clemson and not playing in the ACC championship? I think TCU has a much stronger case.

Posted by Scott | May 30, 2010 at 9:36 am | Shortcut

Aaron, you shouldn't be relying on the inaccurate Warren Nolan report for RPI instead of the more accurate Boyd's World. Georgia Tech actually is 10th and Fullerton is 11th. GT is a .001 ahead of Fullerton. That's nothing. I don't know what the NCAA will do but I don't see a decision being made on RPI. Anybody who knows anything about statistics would say that they are basically tied.

Posted by TitanMike | May 30, 2010 at 10:27 am | Shortcut

How can you really make a statement like "I think TCU has a much stronger case" Scott?
TCU's RPI is an absolute dealbreaker; not enough credible wins on that resume.
As far as a potential #1 being sent to UCONN as a #2 seed, it won't be a team with fantastic facilities. It was simply be indefensible to send FSU to a minor league park off campus and would absolutley send the wrong message from the committee to programs about the value of building tp class facilities.
If a #1 goes to UCONN, it won't be either Arkansas or FSU.

Posted by B Rock | May 30, 2010 at 10:36 am | Shortcut

arkansas has higher rpi than F State and the ncaa loves their rpi, so sorry noles fans, maybe you will get to come to fayetteville, love to see you here

Posted by Brandon | May 30, 2010 at 11:04 am | Shortcut

[...] today if they will play host to an NCAA Regional, even before the entire field of 64 is announced. Baseball America’s Aaron Fitt thinks the Commodores are on the outside looking in after losing to Florida 5-2 on Friday and [...]

Posted by Yeah, The Waiting is the Hardest Part… « MrSEC.com | May 30, 2010 at 12:20 pm | Shortcut

B Rock: Are you kidding me? Who says Arkansas or FSU can't be sent to Conn? Last I checked, both schools have yet to even win ONE national title. They are in the same boat as Conn. If your name isn't LSU from the SEC, you have no right to complain. Or, maybe Georgia from 20 years ago. Elitism? Give me a break. Accomplish something on the field.

Posted by Brian | May 30, 2010 at 1:13 pm | Shortcut

Won't argue the top 4 of your seeds, but let's look at 5-8 in relation to CSF:
Team .. SoS .. ISR .. Massey .. RPI
CSF .. 12 .. 3 .. 5.. 11
CC: 101 .. 5 .. 4 .. 2
UCLA .. 7 .. 2 .. 3 .. 7
Louisville .. 96 .. 16 .. 18 .. 6
GT .. 75 .. 12 .. 13 .. 10
Key in on SoS, as you used it to justify UCLA over CSF. But dropped the reasoning with CC, GT, Lou.
Aaron, you leapfroged UCLA over CSF in the rankings last week, only to have CSF spank UCLA, again, proving you wrong. You simply prepostioned them over CSF, and then relied on the often heard recourse… "it was just a mid-week game". And yes, CSF took both games from UCLA home & away. But your reasoning is about as convenient an argument you could muster… UCLA played a tougher conference schedule, head to heads be damned. Yet if you look at the Louisville, CC, and GT, their SoS's are as embarassingly pathetic as they come. So which is it? You penalized CSF schedule vis a vis UCLA's, yet gave golden passes to the east coast patsy playing bunch. Aaron, you aren't even pretending to be unbiased anymore. I guess you just didn't want BOTH UCLA and CSF seeded… so they will be forced to play one another again during regionals… and not taking any Omaha spots from the east??? How else do you explain giving NO WEIGHT to GT, CC, & Lou's SoS???? Yet dinging CSF for their #11 SoS in relation to UCLA's? It's the most insane reasoning. Yet I guess GT's 1/1000 of a percent higher RPI carries vastly more weight than any SoS Grand Canyon sized disparities. Long live Baseball America's beloved RPI metric! It serves the east so darn well!!!! But we appreciate you dropping the pretenses… and just going all out blatant.

Posted by PhxTitan | May 30, 2010 at 1:33 pm | Shortcut

Tell us how you really feel, PhxTitan. Looks, this was a prediction–I made it very clear this is not what I think the committee *should* do. I think Fullerton is a more deserving national seed than Georgia Tech, for instance, and it has a case vs. UCLA. But what are the chances of the committee awarding three national seeds to West Coast teams? Not great, I’d say. You have to compare teams within their regions. You’ll notice I don’t even consider the possibility of giving Miami a national seed over those West Coast teams, even though it is higher in the RPI than Fullerton and right next to UCLA, and it has more top 50 wins than either of them. But Miami does not stack up well against the other teams in its region, including Georgia Tech, which won a head-to-head weekend series against the Hurricanes down the stretch (note: that’s a weekend series, not two midweek games). The same goes for Arkansas, which has a higher RPI and more quality wins than Fullerton — but does not stack up well against its peers in the SEC, so is not a national seed contender. Just like Miami and Arkansas must be compared to their regional competition, so much teams on the West Coast. And the committee figures to be more impressed with UCLA’s resume than Fullerton’s. Of course, it probably doesn’t matter what kind of explanation I give you. You think I’ve got UCLA “pre-positioned” over CSF; I think you’ve got me “pre-positioned” as “biased” against Fullerton. Even though I have said all year and continue to believe that the Bruins will not beat the Titans in a super regional. But if you want to fall back on the laughable “bias” crutch, go right ahead.

Posted by Aaron Fitt | May 30, 2010 at 1:44 pm | Shortcut

Brian — I'm a bit confused by your argument. By all avaliable objective metrics, including both polls and RPI, both Arkansas and FSU have a much stronger resume then UCONN.
Indeed, the only argument for UCONN hosting is geographic diversity within the field. However, that's a complete slap in the face of both FSU and Arkansas who have probably two of the top ten facilities in the nation and both have made SIGNIFICANT investment to get those facilities to where they are today.
By contrast UCONN, despite making significant continued investment in both their basketball and football programs, has basically ignored their baseball facilities and any host proposal would be based upon a local minor league facility. This is athletic departmental behavior (specifically, the ignoring of baseball infastructure) that in no way, shape, or form should be condoned by the committee; especially when it comes at the detriment of more deserving programs who HAVE made that investment.
I'd suggest staying away from a performance based metric discussion as there really is nothing to support UCONN hosting a regional other then a geographic preference for host sites. They trail behind the other contenders for a hosting site both in poll and RPI rankings.

Posted by B Rock | May 30, 2010 at 1:45 pm | Shortcut

One other thing: the difference between Fullerton and teams like Coastal and Louisville is that Fullerton started the year with three straight losing weekends. Coastal and Louisville each had just one losing weekend all year. Fullerton’s schedule is unquestionable stronger, of course, but I can’t give the Titans a ton of credit for playing a tough schedule because they didn’t have a great record against the best nonconference teams they played on weekends, when the Titans and their opponents both had their top pitchers going. The exception was the Irvine weekend, but that’s the only series Fullerton won against a regional team. Louisville won a series at Ole Miss and against UConn, at least. Coastal doesn’t have any great series wins, either, but the Chanticleers dominated the heck out of their lousy conference, and they do have an RPI edge. Those things will matter to the committee.

Posted by Aaron Fitt | May 30, 2010 at 1:50 pm | Shortcut

Aaron, everybody's engaged in the committee "PREDICTION" game, which only serves to provide cover for the selection committee… and the RPI. It's a self-feeding circle of convenience and willfulness. When they come out with the brackthet, all the Power's that Be, with soapboxes, will say they were all pretty close, with one or two exceptions… given the massive buy-in's with the RPI, as evidenced by its CONSTANT referencing, gains/losses announcments, and PREDICTIONS based upon the worst objective metric out there, the east tilting RPI. After all, all the densities are out east… thus "convenient". Boyd has demonstrated, proved the ISR trumps the RPI in his whitepapers, even Massey's CBASE proves superior, yet BA NEVER even acknowledges those objective metric exists! It's just constant RPI this, RPI that.. because of the "convenience" of committee use. As if the real job of writers, analysts isn't to highlight strength of play via strength of schedule play and award merits for that level of competition.
Why aren't you engaged in naming what "should be"? That's your job, no? Not engage in this back-scratching with the committee. To what end does committee "prediction" serve?
I just think you give total non-weight to SoS when it counts, even to the point of engaging Boyd Nation on the matter with your Virginia example, but quietly didn't discuss GT, who you had ranked like #3 at time, yet was playing a 120 SoS or something like that. (Great write-up and Q&A by the way, well done, as always.) And come your next Preseason Poll, "intended SoS" won't even be considered… and wins will simply keep the ACC & SEC artificially elevated deep into the season with their annual allotment of 15 of the Top 25. Just win, baby. It just all unfolds so conveniently, and easy wins simply keep the system rolling.
UCLA & CSF were razor thin seperated considerations. Head to head should have been the no brainer tie-breaker. CSF swept. They NEVER play weekends, being of different confs. So you think the stellar level teams take their "midweek" games lightly? Not a chance. Ask both teams if those games meant anything to their respective clubs… anywhere in the nation for that matter when pride & reputation & rivalry are on the line.
You guys need to be a bit more judicious and less dismissive of "midweek" games when it is obvious they "count" among powerhouse rivals. And SoS of 101, 96, and 75 are embarrasments to be associated with the 8 National Seed teams. GT's 1/1000 of a percent RPI really trumped CSF vastly superior SoS play? Really? Why? Admit it, SoS is not a weighted consideration. Thus… why not???
Hey, this aside, you guys still walk on water and I love your work. Minor qualms with full throated proscecutions aside. ;-)

Posted by PhxTitan | May 30, 2010 at 2:55 pm | Shortcut

I agree with PhxTitan that CSFU will get the last Ntl Seed over GT, but his reasoning is one sided. GT plays in a vastly superior conference ths year than CSFU. You just can't discount Top 50 wins by GT and say CSFU's SOS is better. CSFU has to play West Coast teams that are not even in the RPI top 100. Your point is invalid. However, I do feel CSFU is the 8th NS over GT and S Car ……but it's very, very close.

Posted by Bill | May 30, 2010 at 3:14 pm | Shortcut

First of all, let me announce that I am a Fullerton guy. The reason any of us are having this discussion is because CSF dropped the series with TCU and Arizona early on and that the rest of the Big West was not as good as projected. If any team deserves to be miffed it is TCU. I saw TCU put up a a huge number against New Mexico and they are for real!
If the Titans are better than UCLA (and I think they are), they should be able to win 2 of 3 at Jackie Robinson. If not…go Bruins. Fullerton is playing as well as anyone right now and if they keep playing well are a team that no one will want to face in June.
Go Titans!

Posted by Doug | May 30, 2010 at 3:38 pm | Shortcut

Actually, it's CSUF. And if you want to piss off the Irvine's, the UC's… call the Anteaters "Cal State Irvine". Anteaters turn into TRex.'s ;-)

Posted by PhxTitan | May 30, 2010 at 3:52 pm | Shortcut

UCONN hosting is an absolute joke, but the thing is that the first rule of the committee according to the handbook is to place a regional in every possible region. UCONN has gotten close enough in the minds of the committee to justify send a team there as a Number One seed. In my mind if you are not a Number One seed then you shouldn't host. This case should be made over time. Coastal was an up and coming team now they have National Respect. They started out by going on the road and playing their way up the ladder..

Posted by Tigerterrace | May 30, 2010 at 7:31 pm | Shortcut

I still don't understand how Florida State fell so far in the last two weeks. The Seminoles were considered a borderline National Seed team just before dropping three games at Clemson… do those three games against a pretty good squad drop them out of the top 16? That just doesn't seem right.
I don't understand how one bad weekend against a good team can hurt FSU so badly… if UConn, Louisville, or Coastal were to even schedule Clemson they would be praised for attempting to play a team from a real conference and Clemson would likely be the best team any of those teams play all season.
FSU is 5-3 against Top 5 RPI teams… that's more games against the top 5 than UConn played against the top 50 this season. Maybe next year a couple of good teams like FSU and Ole Miss that aren't hosting this year will schedule a bunch of high schools to play against just to get to 50 wins. The selection committee should be ashamed.

Posted by Josh | May 31, 2010 at 9:02 am | Shortcut

Good guess, Aaron. You got a whole lot of things right.

Now pick some upsets – what #1 seeds won't survive or will have the toughest time surviving through the next week?

Posted by oli3 | May 31, 2010 at 2:06 pm | Shortcut

Well, it looks like the experts were wrong about Louisville and Gerogia Tech after all.
Go Titans…still alive and well!

Posted by Doug | June 8, 2010 at 10:19 pm | Shortcut