Another top seed has fallen. Texas Christian was eliminated from the Mountain West Conference tournament by Utah, 6-4. I still think TCU has a decent chance to host a regional, but failing to reach the MWC championship game is certainly a blow. Still, Horned Frogs have a top-10 RPI, a regular-season MWC title and quality nonconference wins against Cal State Fullerton and Mississippi. I think that’ll be good enough, though I also wouldn’t be surprised if TCU is sent elsewhere, probably as a No. 1 seed.

Utah must now win two straight games against San Diego State to win the automatic bid (and deliver another major blow to a bubble team like Duke, Stanford, Oregon State or Hawaii). The Aztecs can clinch the MWC title with a win against the Utes tonight. The Aztecs might have a chance to host as a No. 2 seed should they wrap up the title, but geography might actually work against them. There aren’t many Western teams heading to regionals this year—there aren’t even enough local teams to fill up regionals in Irvine and Fullerton. Adding a fourth West Coast regional (joining Tempe also) would require three more teams to fly across country. That seems like an extremely unlikely scenario to me.