Earlier I posted a look at teams that won automatic bids on Saturday, as well as my final prediction for regional hosts. America East favorite Binghamton also punched its ticket late Saturday night with a blowout win against Albany to avoid an if-necessary game Sunday. Wichita State also reached regionals for the eighth straight year with a 4-2 win over Creighton in the Missouri Valley Conference finals. Here’s a sneak peek at what’s left to be decided Sunday:
• Virginia plays Florida State for the ACC championship.
• The Atlantic Sun title game between Jacksonville and Lipscomb was suspended in the second inning Saturday with the Bisons leading 1-0. Play will resume at 10 a.m.
• Texas A&M topped Texas Tech 11-4 Saturday night, sending Missouri to the Big 12 title game against Texas via tiebreakers.
• Louisville faces Connecticut for the Big East championship. That’s a big one for bubble teams to watch, as Louisville will get an at-large bid if it loses, but UConn likely will not (though it has an outside shot).
• Rice faces Southern Mississippi for the Conference USA title. The Golden Eagles will be very much on the bubble if they lose—they finished the regular season poorly, losing four straight conference series, and they are just 4-8 against the top 50 in the RPI. Fellow CUSA bubble team Tulane won its final six conference series, but isn’t much better against the top 50 (5-7). Should Rice win Sunday, will USM’s deep CUSA tourney run outweigh Tulane’s superior body of work? It’s hard to say, but I’m not sure there are enough bids for both teams to get in. That means a Southern Miss win Sunday would be very bad news for the Green Wave.
• Illinois-Chicago blanked Wright State 4-0 on Saturday to force a decisive game Sunday. That one’s a toss-up; Wright State has won four of the seven meetings between the two teams so far this year.
• Louisiana State won back-to-back games Saturday against Georgia to earn a trip to the SEC title game against Vanderbilt. The Commodores have secured an at-large bid if they lose, but I’m sure they’d love to take the SEC’s automatic bid. You’ve got to like their chances: Vandy has played just three games, while LSU has had to play five games by fighting through the loser’s bracket.
• The top two seeds will square off in the SoCon finals, as No. 1 Elon faces No. 2 Georgia Southern. Both teams should get bids regardless, but there likely aren’t enough at-large bids out there for Western Carolina to snatch a third berth from the SoCon.
• Louisiana-Monroe held Western Kentucky’s potent offense to two runs Saturday to earn a trip to the Sun Belt finals against Middle Tennessee State. The Hilltoppers must root hard for the favored Blue Raiders, as a ULM victory is likely to squeeze WKU out of regionals. Western Kentucky might be on the bubble even if MTSU wins, as the ‘Toppers are just 1-6 against top 50 RPI teams.
• Alcorn State faces top-seeded Southern for the SWAC championship.
• Three teams remain alive in the WAC tournament, where New Mexico beat San Jose State 10-9 in the winner’s bracket game. San Jose State will face Fresno State in an elimination game at 6 p.m. ET. New Mexico will faces the winner of that game for all the marbles. Does Fresno State have another magical run in it? We’ll soon find out. The WAC figures to be a one-bid league, as Hawaii has slipped to the wrong side of the bubble. San Jose State has had a strong season, but the Spartans rank 76th in the RPI and are just 0-2 against top 50 RPI teams. They need to win the automatic bid to get in.
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Tulane didn’t really have a superior season to USM. They finished with a similar record (both regular season and conference) and similar RPI. Now USM has a better RPI and record and will get the at-large over Tulane if it comes down to that. I’m not really sure what you are looking at at this point.
Posted by Jeremy | May 24, 2009 at 10:41 am | ShortcutUSM is 7-3 in its last 10 games. Tulane is 6-4.
You pointed out each team’s record against the top 50 which is virtually a wash. Well USM is 13-13 vs the top 100 while Tulane is 10-15.
USM has a RPI of 55. Tulane has a RPI of 66.
Also, USM beat Tulane TWICE HEAD TO HEAD in the tournament.
Superior body of work? Really? USM is the hotter team. USM has the better numbers. But Tulane has the superior body of work?
Southern Miss lost its last four conference series, and has exactly zero series wins against regional contenders. The Golden Eagles had a good week this week, but this was by far their best weekend of the year. Tulane won its last six weekend series, still had a respectable showing in the CUSA tourney (winning two games), won a series at Southern Miss, also won a quality series against East Carolina, and is 2-3 against the top-two-ranked teams in the nation (LSU and UC Irvine). That’s a better body of work for me, but you are free to disagree. You might be right that USM is more likely to get the bid, because this weekend is freshest in their minds, and somehow Southern Miss does have the better RPI.
Posted by Aaron Fitt | May 24, 2009 at 1:14 pm | ShortcutI don’t know what you mean by USM having zero wins against regional contenders. I am assuming you don’t think Rice, ECU, or Ole Miss is a regional contender but don’t understand why.
Assuming that both Tulane and USM were regional teams (which they obviously aren’t) here is each team’s wins against likely regional teams:
USM (7 wins): 1 vs Rice, 1 vs Ole Miss, 3 vs Tulane (I don’t think they are a regional team but you do), and 2 vs ECU.
Posted by Jeremy | May 24, 2009 at 1:36 pm | ShortcutTulane (7 wins): 1 vs UC Irvine, 1 vs LSU, 2 vs USM, 3 vs ECU.
So then what do you look at? Do you look at RPI? USM’s is 11 spots higher. Do you look at head-to-head? USM is 3-2 vs Tulane and beat them the last 2 times (in the CUSA tournament) by a combined score of 18-3. Do you look at who is hotter? USM obviously is. Do you look at who went further in the tournament? USM lost a 2 run heartbreaker to Rice today. Tulane was disposed of pretty easily by USM. Tulane did get a big win against ECU in the conference tourney but so did USM. USM is a few games better against the RPI top 100 while Tulane is 1 game better against the RPI top 50. It seems like USM to me but I guess you are hanging your hat on USM’s zero wins against regional contenders? I don’t even know what that means.
Read closely — I said SERIES wins. College baseball is all about winning series. I don’t give you a lot of points for going 1-2.
Posted by Aaron Fitt | May 24, 2009 at 2:05 pm | ShortcutThe Gamecocks and college baseball were robbed from hosting a regional in beautiful Carolina Stadium (The Ray). USC was hot only losing its last two games in the sec tourney to the two teams in the championship and those games came down to the bottom of the ninth,we will take our #2 seed and win in Atlanta,Chapel Hill anywhere. 2009 USC GAMECOCKS REGIONAL CHAMPIONS,lets get it on!
Posted by christopher lee miller | May 24, 2009 at 2:59 pm | Shortcut