Projected Field Of 64



On the eve of the NCAA tournament selection (which will be broadcast at 12:30 p.m. ET on Monday on ESPN), let’s take a crack at predicting the field of 64. National seeds are in parentheses, with regional hosts denoted by ^ and automatic qualifiers denoted by *. The eight regionals at the top of this list are on the left side of the bracket, and the eight regionals at the bottom are on the right side of the bracket.

Miami Lincoln, Neb.
1. (1) Miami 1. Nebraska^
2. Florida 2. Kentucky
3. St. John’s 3. California
4. Mount St. Mary’s* 4. Eastern Illinois*
   
Fullerton, Calif. Palo Alto, Calif.
1. (8) Cal State Fullerton^ 1. Stanford
2. Pepperdine 2. Missouri
3. UCLA 3. Virginia
4. Columbia* 4. UC Davis
   
Baton Rouge, La. Raleigh, N.C.
1. (4) Louisiana State^* 1. North Carolina State^
2. Southern Mississippi 2. East Carolina
3. New Orleans 3. Charlotte*
4. Bucknell* 4. James Madison*
   
Tallahassee, Fla. Athens, Ga.
1. (5) Florida State^ 1. Georgia^
2. Vanderbilt 2. Georgia Tech
3. Tulane 3. Louisville*
4. Bethune-Cookman* 4. Western Kentucky*
   
Tempe, Ariz. Long Beach, Calif.
1. (2) Arizona State^* 1. Long Beach State^*
2. UC Irvine 2. Arizona
3. Alabama 3. Arkansas
4. Rider* 4. Fresno State*
   
Stillwater, Okla.  Ann Arbor, Mich.
1. (7) Oklahoma State^  1. San Diego*
2. Wichita State*  2. Michigan^*
3. Oral Roberts*  3. Mississippi
4. Illinois-Chicago*  4. Eastern Michigan*
   
 Cary, N.C.  Conway, S.C.
 1. (3) North Carolina^  1. Coastal Carolina^*
 2. UNC Wilmington  2. South Carolina
 3. Elon*  3. College of Charleston
 4. Stony Brook*  4. Lipscomb*
   
 Houston  College Station, Texas
 1. (6) Rice^  1. Texas A&M
 2. Texas*  2. Texas Christian*
 3. Dallas Baptist  3. Houston*
 4. Texas Southern*  4. Sam Houston State*

ANALYSIS

  • UC Davis, Tulane and Arkansas earn the final three at-large bids, edging Oregon State, Missouri State and Baylor. The Beavers are the 65th team even after sweeping Pacific to finish 28-24 overall. Oregon State ranked 59th in the unofficial Ratings Percentage Index at boydsworld.com heading into Sunday’s action–the worst RPI of any of the bubble teams. But the Beavers also had five quality series wins that trump anything on the resumes of Missouri State or Baylor: against Georgia, Pepperdine, Arizona State, Arizona and UCLA. It could go either way for the two-time defending champs. The Aggies get in on the strength of a 13-11 Big West Conference record, a series win against Long Beach State and three midweek wins against Stanford and California. Tulane’s case is built around series wins at East Carolina and against Southern Mississippi. And Arkansas has good series wins against South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida, making up for the fact that the Razorbacks didn’t make the SEC tournament. Missouri State and Baylor just can’t match those quality wins.
  • Cal State Fullerton earns the final national seed despite losing the Big West title on the final day of the regular-season. The Titans and Long Beach State finished with identical 37-19 overall records and 16-8 marks in conference play, but the DIrtbags earned the league’s automatic bid by winning two out of three against the Titans head-to-head this weekend. Still, Fullerton has been more consistent this year on the whole and is stronger in the RPI. The Titans rank ninth, while Long Beach is 26th.
  • Oklahoma State is the lone Big 12 team to earn a national seed, thanks largely to series wins against the other four top teams from the Big 12: Texas A&M, Nebraska, Missouri and Texas. The Cowboys also had a strong showing in the conference tournament, going 2-1 with wins against Baylor and Nebraska.
  • Louisiana State vaults all the way up to the No. 4 national seed after running its winning streak to 20 games with an 8-2 win over Mississippi in the SEC championship game. Georgia, the only other SEC team to earn a No. 1 seed, falls out of a national seed after dropping its final series against Alabama and going 0-2 in the conference tournament. The SEC leads all conferences with nine bids, followed by the ACC (six). The Big 12, Pac-10 and Conference USA each get five bids, and the Big West gets four.
  • San Diego gets shipped to Michigan as the No. 1 seed. The Toreros could still wind up as a No. 2 seed at a regional on the West Coast thanks to their 28 RPI, but winning the WCC’s regular-season title and championship series and seven combined nonconference wins against Long Beach State, UC Irvine, UCLA, Missouri, Cal State Fullerton and Oregon State ought to earn USD a No. 1 seed. If the Toreros get passed over, expect Georgia Tech, Texas or Florida to head to Ann Arbor as the No. 1 seed.

Of course, those are just our thoughts. The real field is released at 12:30 ET Monday.



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  • Aaron Fitt is the lead college writer for Baseball America. If you have questions or comments about college baseball you can e-mail him at collegeblog@baseballamerica.com.

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