NCAA Releases RPI



The NCAA’s official baseball website has featured one ranking this season–Baseball America’s top 25. Now it has two.

As mentioned last week, for the first time the NCAA is releasing its official baseball Ratings Percentage Index, and there are a few surprises at the top. One non-surprise: Vanderbilt, No. 1 in our rankings, is No. 1 in the RPI, followed by Rice, South Carolina and Texas A&M.

While the Aggies are something of a surprise at No. 4, Long Beach State shouldn’t be a surprise at No. 5. The Dirtbags, who have played a nation-best 22 games against teams in Baseball America’s Top 25 and are unranked in BA’s latest poll. LBSU has the highest ranking of any team on the West Coast, followed by Arizona State at No. 8. However, West Coast teams actually aren’t quite as under-represented as expected in the RPI, with San Diego, Pepperdine, Cal State Fullerton, UC Irvine, Oregon State and Arizona all are bunched from Nos. 20-27.

Several Atlantic Coast Conference teams suffer in the RPI compared to the national rankings, thanks mostly to poor strength of schedule and/or a preponderance of home games. Florida State is 37-6 for the purpose of the RPI and ranked second in BA’s top 25, but its weak non-ACC schedule, coupled with 34 of its 43 games being at home, help drive it down to 14th on the RPI. Virginia, No. 3 in the BA poll, is just 13th in the RPI, with North Carolina (which has lost head-to-head series with both FSU and UVA) ranked as the top ACC team, ninth overall in the nation.

Among other items of note:

• Minnesota checks in at No. 17 thanks to an arduous non-Big Ten schedule, but the Golden Gophers are almost certain to drop as the bulk of their remaining games are against conference opponents who are ranked low in the RPI. The snow-out of a four-game set with Michigan (No. 33 in the RPI) will hurt both teams’ chances of being regional hosts or No. 1 seeds.

• UCLA leads the Pacific-10 but its 22-16 record is a big reason its RPI ranking is at 51, putting it squarely on the bubble if it does not win the Pac-10 regular season and its ensuing automatic bid. Southern California was No. 43 in the rankings, prior to a 3-1 loss Tuesday to Cal State Fullerton, but at 21-21, the Trojans are sliding the wrong way and putting their at-large chances in jeopardy.

• Conference USA, with jumbled standings after league-leader Rice, has four teams scrambling for regional bids. East Carolina, at No. 16, has the second-best RPI among CUSA schools, with Southern Mississippi (38) next. Memphis (47) is the schizophrenic team of the league at 26-16, 9-6 in the league. The Tigers were on the fast track to a regional bid until losing two home games last weekend to previously winless (in league play) Marshall. Houston (50) is 9-3 in the conference and should be in if it remains second in the league, but Tulane (53), fifth in the conference at 8-7, could be on the wrong side of the bubble if it doesn’t start playing better.

• The Missouri Valley, another mid-major conference in search of at-large bids, has two teams with borderline RPIs in Creighton (48) and Evansville (49). Creighton won two of three against the Purple Aces in Evansville, which could prove a significant advantage come selection time, but Evansville’s non-league schedule was significantly stronger at the top and down the stretch. The Purple Aces would really help their cause with a series win against league leader Wichita State (No. 11 in the RPI).

• Louisville (No. 40) leads the way for the Big East, with league leader Rutgers (62) and sliding South Florida (44) the only other teams in hailing distance of at-large bids.

• Air Force (7-33) checks in as Team Irrelevant at No. 293, behind even winless Coppin State (0-36) thanks to the fact six of its seven victories are against non-Division I opponents. Air Force’s only D-I win came at Hawaii-Hilo, and the Falcons lose bonus points for losses to NAIA schools Lewis-Clark State (Idaho) and York (Neb.). Of course, most D-I teams would be challenged by Lewis-Clark State, the 13-time NAIA champion, but more important is the fact that Air Force’s rotten RPI helps drive down the rankings of good Mountain West Conference teams such as Texas Christian (52), Brigham Young (93) and San Diego State (120). The Aztecs, who beat Air Force 31-0 on Sunday, have six of their 27 victories against AFA but also have victories aginst San Diego (1-1), Big West Conference leader Cal Poly and Pac-10 leader UCLA (a series sweep).
Update: Comments can change the world . . . I forwarded the comment below about home fields and neutral sites to the NCAA’s Jim Wright, and he’s already realized one mistake and will make changes in next week’s RPI release. Here’s his reply, in edited form:

“For Rice, we DO consider games at Minute Maid home games for them FOR RPI PURPOSES. Thus, both Vandy and Texas A&M will receive bonus points for beating a top 25 team at home. Our logic here…and this applies to all RPI sports, not just baseball…is a team has an advantage playing in their home city, even if it is not their home facility. If Rice played Houston at Minute Maid, it would be a neutral site. We also have Rice playing away at TAMU-CC, but do have them with two neutral site games at TAMU-CC vs. TCU and Texas Tech. The Texas games came to me listed as being played in Round Rock. I just found out that’s literally a suburb of Austin, so I’m changing those to home games, thus giving San Diego and Stanford some bonus points.”

Take a bow, texd, for making the college baseball world a better place.



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4 Comments

The NCAA has some erroneous data with regards to home/away vs neutral site games. Rice has several neutral site games which are counted as home (Minute Maid Classic) or away (TAMU-CC at the Whataburger Classic) despite the fact that these were clearly neutral site games (no team got unequal practice time at the facility, etc.) Meanwhile UT is shown at 5-3 at neutral sites despite never playing a true neutral site game. Their first 8 home games (as well as their alumni game) were played at local AAA ballpark the Dell Diamond, while construction went on at the Disch. During that period, Dell served as their home field and they practiced there, making it clearly a non-neutral site. Those are all small potatoes, but might matter up so high in the RPI where the difference between getting a national seed or not.

Looks like the move to the MWC for football may have killed off TCU’s chances at baseball. Sitting at #52, they probably have to win the MWC tourney in order to make the postseason. 52 might be high enough to get them there, but looking at their remaining schedule, they can do nothing but sink the rest of the way:

#45 x 1 game (Baylor)
#64 x 1 (Texas Tech)
#120 x 3
#169 x 3
#174 x 1
#204 x 3
#206 x 3

MWC Tourney (in which only one possible opponent — BYU at 93 — is in the top 100)

Boyd Nation’s RPI Needs analysis shows TCU needing to go 14-1 for the rest of the season in order to scrape the top 45 in RPI.

P.S. Sorry about my total lack of formatting in my first comment.

Just a quick note to let people know I’ve updated the Air Force entry above; the intial entry really didn’t state the case of why Air Force ranks last properly, and gave no real context for why it matters. Air Force’s only D-I win came at Hawaii-Hilo, and the Falcons lose bonus points for losses to NAIA schools Lewis-Clark State (Idaho) and York (Neb.). Of course, most D-I teams would be challenged by Lewis-Clark State, the 13-time NAIA champion, but more important is the fact that Air Force’s rotten RPI helps drive down the rankings of good Mountain West Conference teams such as Texas Christian (52), Brigham Young (93) and San Diego State (120). The Aztecs, who beat Air Force 31-0 on Sunday, have six of their 27 victories against AFA but also have victories aginst San Diego (1-1), Big West Conference leader Cal Poly and Pac-10 leader UCLA (a series sweep). San Diego State is a pretty good team, and in reality should be a bubble team. Those six wins against Air Force, though, mean nothing to the committee, and SDSU has almost no chance at earning an at-large bid, despite making significant improvements in Tony Gwynn’s fifth season as head coach.

Coppin State is winless on the year, yet ranks ahead of three teams in the RPI. Nuff said.


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  • Aaron Fitt is the lead college writer for Baseball America. If you have questions or comments about college baseball you can e-mail him at collegeblog@baseballamerica.com.

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